Imagine you manage a baseball team.  Let's say it's little league, because what follows probably wouldn't happen in the bigs.  You're working with your kids on leading-off and stealing bases.  One of your players lucked into a bean ball and has been on 1st base for several pitches in a game that has otherwise been pretty rough.  But hey!  At least you have a kid on base now!  Maybe he or she will be able to steal a base or two.

You shout: "OK, remember what we worked on in practice with leading-off!"

Instead of inching toward second base, your player starts walking back toward home.

If that's not a clear analogy, your base-runner is the bond market.  It's not uncommon to see bonds take a lead-off ahead of the next at-bat--especially when it's the Fed that's coming up to the plate.  In this case, this isn't the sort of lead-off we'd hope for, but it's one we occasionally see nonetheless.

The damage was somewhat livable earlier in the day as yields were only up 2-3bps.  But the last hour of trading saw bonds turn up the selling pressure and 10yr yields rose more than 4bps to 2.90%.  None of the weakness could be sourced to any event or headline apart from anxiety and position-taking ahead of tomorrow's Fed Announcement.  


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.5
99-16 : -0-08
Treasuries
10 YR
2.8996 : +0.0546
Pricing as of 3/20/18 5:03PMEST

Today's Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
4:45PM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Negative Reprices Just a Bit More Possible Now
4:26PM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Bonds at Day's Weakest Levels; Modest Reprice Risk for One or Two Lenders
8:47AM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Traders Lined Up to Sell Bonds at The Open

MBS Live Chat Highlights
A recap of featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Hugh W. Page  :  "I think these increasing rates have pulled people off the fence right now. Not sure what everyone else is seeing. I'm the busiest I've been in probably 2 yrs right now at this moment in terms of leads."
Sung Kim  :  "more loan officers chasing fewer loans = cut cut cut"
Joseph Moran  :  "I keep hearing about margin compression. I know lenders are making less money but I don't know the mechanics as to why. can you someone explain?"
Sung Kim  :  "quite possibly the most amazing rally of 2018"
Tom Bartlett  :  "spring equinox?"
Jeff Anderson  :  "Another nor'easter?"
Sung Kim  :  "everyone realizes what is happening tomorrow right?"