Last week, I noted that the current week wasn't likely to see bond yields rise because we'd just had 3 straight weeks of clear moves higher.  We don't really get "4th weeks" in cases where the 3 bad weeks occur in the midst of a trend that's already flat or moving higher (as is the current case).  As bonds head for the exits, 10yr yields of 2.66% are right in line with last week's latest levels.

In other words, this week was indeed "flat," but it sure didn't feel like it.  One of the reasons is that last week ended on a bad note with yields running up to their highest levels by the end of the day.  That made it seem like almost anything would be better in comparison.  Instead, we got slightly higher yields on a few occasions this week and were never allowed to make any meaningful progress back in the other direction.

Foreign central bank announcements were key, and there was even some reaction to the largely overblown news about the dollar moving rates.  But more important than any of the near-term headlines is the simple nature of the bigger picture. 

Rates are actively engaged in a clear uptrend.  This trend is not your friend until and unless it does something friendly.  Whenever that happens, you still shouldn't be too quick to trust it.  Specifically, we'd need to see more than just a day or two of halfway decent gains in order to begin doubting the uptrend.  We need several of the recent technical ceilings (now technical floors... 2.615, 2.57, 2.52% in 10yr yields, for instance) to be broken before we get our hopes up. As it stands, we'll be hoping not to see a new break over the 2.67% ceiling to start next week.  


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.5
101-08 : -0-09
Treasuries
10 YR
2.6618 : +0.0408
Pricing as of 1/26/18 4:58PMEST

Today's Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
11:26AM  :  What Was Up With That Big Spike in MBS?
10:37AM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Negative Reprices Becoming Possible For Some Lenders
10:07AM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Under Some Pressure
8:42AM  :  Bonds' First Reaction to Econ Data is Positive

MBS Live Chat Highlights
A recap of featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Sung Kim  :  "this happens every year fellas, rates run up and then rally in spring, patience"
Ted Rood  :  "That was on pension funds rebalancing, DR, and was talking about 10's of billions. Didn't seem overly significant to me."
Sung Kim  :  "one of the very rare times in history where world is in synchronous growth - despite what BOJ and ECB say, if this continues, they are QT'ing"
David Rudnick  :  "there was an article someone posted about huge bond buying coming... anyone buying the hopium ?"