Last week, I noted that the current week wasn't likely to see bond yields rise because we'd just had 3 straight weeks of clear moves higher.  We don't really get "4th weeks" in cases where the 3 bad weeks occur in the midst of a trend that's already flat or moving higher (as is the current case).  As bonds head for the exits, 10yr yields of 2.66% are right in line with last week's latest levels.

In other words, this week was indeed "flat," but it sure didn't feel like it.  One of the reasons is that last week ended on a bad note with yields running up to their highest levels by the end of the day.  That made it seem like almost anything would be better in comparison.  Instead, we got slightly higher yields on a few occasions this week and were never allowed to make any meaningful progress back in the other direction.

Foreign central bank announcements were key, and there was even some reaction to the largely overblown news about the dollar moving rates.  But more important than any of the near-term headlines is the simple nature of the bigger picture. 

Rates are actively engaged in a clear uptrend.  This trend is not your friend until and unless it does something friendly.  Whenever that happens, you still shouldn't be too quick to trust it.  Specifically, we'd need to see more than just a day or two of halfway decent gains in order to begin doubting the uptrend.  We need several of the recent technical ceilings (now technical floors... 2.615, 2.57, 2.52% in 10yr yields, for instance) to be broken before we get our hopes up. As it stands, we'll be hoping not to see a new break over the 2.67% ceiling to start next week.