A sideways range with higher lows and lower highs...

The risk of periodic volatility regardless of economic data's suggestion...

A certain portion of traders making certain trades simply because they have to hold certain positions through a certain date...

All of the above could be said of the November bond market environment most years.  This year was no exception.  Treasury yields formed a nearly perfect triangle heading into the end of the month.

But to whatever extent yields continue finding support at successively lower ceilings (the past 3 days have each seen "lower highs" in terms of intraday 10yr yields), December is shaping up to be very much like November--just with more elbow room.  

The following chart shows this (potential) phenomenon.  The initial uptrend line (lower white line) remains unchanged.  November's downtrend line (upper white line) is replaced by the upper teal line to provide a wider range with the same consolidative picture.

2017-12-5 open

What's the point?  With any technical analysis, the point is to set up lines in the sand ahead of time in order to measure how meaningful certain changes in price/yield might be.  A break higher from November's consolidative trend only resulted in a moderate amount of weakness so far.  The new consolidative trend gives us another defensive line to watch.  If it's broken to the upside, we'd then have 2.42% and 2.47% to watch as horizontal pivot points.

Today's only potentially significant economic data arrives at 10am in the form of ISM Non-Manufacturing.  Apart from NFP, this is historically one of the very few reports that would be considered a top tier market mover, but given the recent track record, it wouldn't be a surprise to see a limited reaction.  Traders want to know what's up with the tax bill.


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.5
102-21 : -0-01
Treasuries
10 YR
2.3848 : +0.0218
Pricing as of 12/5/17 9:18AMEST

Tomorrow's Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Forecast Prior
Tuesday, Dec 05
8:30 International trade mm $ (bl) Sep -43.2 -42.4
10:00 ISM N-Mfg PMI * Nov 59.0 60.1
10:00 ISM N-Mfg Bus Act * Nov 61.5 62.2