As discussed in detail in the daily video on MBS Live, today's bond market weakness was multifaceted, to say the least.  But if we want to make the move higher in stocks and bond yields about one thing and one thing only, we can continue to talk about the prospects for the tax bill passing.  In that regard, today's big to-do was a change of heart from Senator McCain who previously said he wouldn't vote for the bill.  Now he will, and that gives the Senate enough votes to try to pass the thing tonight or tomorrow.

The rally in the stock market was more gradual and lasted longer than the mover higher in bond yields.  It was also much bigger relative to recent ranges.  The exuberance in stocks, alone, could explain some of the weakness in bonds as investors sell bonds to buy stocks.

Even then, the move in bonds doesn't really need much more explanation than this: yields were very close to key technical levels and today was the last trading day of the month.  It wouldn't really matter what stocks were doing if month-end tradeflows in bonds happened to be skewed in favor of sellers (something that could easily happen if traders did too much "month-end" buying earlier in the month due to the holiday.


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.5
102-18 : -0-05
Treasuries
10 YR
2.4114 : +0.0354
Pricing as of 11/30/17 4:54PMEST

Today's Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
1:05PM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Widespread Reprices Now Highly Likely
12:51PM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Reprices Becoming Likely
12:04PM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Negative Reprice Risk Beginning to Increase
11:25AM  :  Bonds Testing Weaker Limits, But Trying to Bounce
8:45AM  :  Little-Changed to Slightly-Weaker After Morning Data

MBS Live Chat Highlights
A recap of featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Matthew Graham  :  "pdf available on their site: https://www.jct.gov/publications.html?func=startdown&id=5045"
Matthew Graham  :  ""We estimate that the proposal would increase the level of GDP relative to the baseline forecast, by 0.8 percent on average throughout the ten-year budget window""
Hugh W. Page  :  "So is JCT saying it will increase GDP by .8 % per year over 10 yrs or .08% per year = .8%?"
Gerry Suarez  :  "so they're claiming it would result in a loss of revenue of about $1tril over ten years... given the trillions we've added to the deficit over the last ten yrs, that's a joke..."
aaron meyer  :  "Great Huddle MG"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - JCT SAYS REPUBLICAN TAX BILL'S BUDGET IMPACT WOULD BE PARTIALLY OFFSET BY INCREASE IN INTEREST PAID ON DEBT OF ABOUT $50 BILLION"
Matthew Graham  :  "also with a video where I call myself dumb and use colorful language. It's paydirt for those of you who've been waiting for either of those things to happen."
Matthew Graham  :  "exactly"
Andy Pada, Jr.  :  "the huddle is like the start to a Clue game"
Matthew Graham  :  "
New MBS Huddle Released
Proud (And Not Too Proud) to be Dumb"
John Tassios  :  "and it's domestic selling. EU bonds yields all lower for the day"
Manny Gomes  :  "so much for month end buying"
Matthew Graham  :  "we don't tend to see moves like this in medium to low volume. That said, it's not "super high." But it's higher than normal."
Matthew Graham  :  "would you care to guess?"
John Tassios  :  "MG - Volumes today?"

Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Thursday, Nov 30
8:30 Consumer Spending (Consumption) (%) Oct +0.3 0.3 1.0
8:30 Core PCE (y/y) (%)* Oct +1.4 1.3
8:30 Personal Income (%)* Oct +0.4 0.3 0.4
8:30 Jobless Claims (k) w/e 238 240 239
9:45 Chicago PMI * Nov 63.9 63.0 66.2