Today is boring.  It was destined to be boring (probably) before it even occurred, and even if it gives the appearance of being exciting at some point in the next few hours, odds are that it will end up looking boring in retrospect. 


Well, it's not because market participants are waiting in line at Black Friday sales.  That said, many of them will nonetheless be out of the office today.  The silly--nay--RIDICULOUS market custom of opening for a half-day on the Friday after Thanksgiving (we close at 2pm ET today) makes it one of the slowest days of the year, every year. 

The following chart goes back to 2010 and highlights Black Friday's role in the immediately surrounding trading environment.  While those roles have varied somewhat, the common theme is that Black Friday is almost always inconsequential in the bigger picture.  In every case except 2014, Black Friday remained inside the week's existing trading range (and 2014 was arguably unique in that the bond market "flash crash" occurred about a month prior, and bonds were just consolidating into Thanksgiving week after finding their footing).

2017-11-24 open2

As for the current week--actually, the past 2 months, really--bonds have been consolidating once again.  The slightly weaker tone in the overnight session keeps the consolidation range perfectly intact (with today's red candlestick bouncing off the lower line).  

2017-11-24 open

Bottom line, if 10yr yields aren't breaking convincingly over 2.37 or under 2.32, nothing new is happening today.  With no economic data or significant scheduled events on the calendar, this "Day Ahead" may also be "the recap."

MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
FNMA 3.5
102-28 : +0-00
10 YR
2.3436 : +0.0216
Pricing as of 11/24/17 7:36AMEST