If you've been putting something off that you might be able to chip away at with an extra 5 minutes each morning this week, but simply can't bear the thought of not reading this commentary, this may be the best week we've seen all year to tune out.  I'm a great self-promoter, I know.  But seriously, much like the lines on the charts, I have a certain amount of space to fill based on a certain amount of time passing.  Some examples of that filled space will be more interesting than others depending on what markets give me to work with.

If it's not abundantly implied, markets aren't giving anyone much to work with this week.  There are effectively zero instances of relevant economic data.  Apart from Friday's potential Senate tax plan announcement, there isn't much headline potential--especially not after Brady said the House would get back to us on taxes next week.  Even then, it's hard to comment on how taxes would affect bond market trading at this point.  As we discussed earlier this week, the tax plan trade is more about whether ANYTHING gets passed as opposed to the details.

To reiterate yesterday's conclusion, amid an absence of major scheduled events or tape-bomb potential, we're left to watch technicals.  Even those are pretty boring, but at least the trend is our friend for now.  One other level to consider in the following chart is the 2.303 intraday low from yesterday.  That would be the first resistance level blocking our route to 2.28% in 10yr yields.  

2017-11-8 open

If there's one saving grace for today's calendar of scheduled events, it's the 10yr Treasury auction at 1pm.  This won't necessarily be a big deal for bonds, but it's the only calendar item that stands a chance of having a logical impact.  Specifically, if demand metrics are stronger than recent averages, it should act as an endorsement of the recent rally.  If the stats are lower than recent averages, however, that could give the rally some pause.  Revolutionary analysis, I know.  MBS Live members can tune into the live chat window around 1:01:30pm for results and real-time analysis.  And of course, if markets move enough, we'll send out an alert or update.


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.5
103-03 : +0-01
Treasuries
10 YR
2.3127 : +0.0057
Pricing as of 11/8/17 8:51AMEST

Tomorrow's Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Forecast Prior
Wednesday, Nov 08
7:00 Mortgage Refinance Index w/e 1297.0
7:00 MBA Purchase Index w/e 226.1
7:00 Mortgage Market Index w/e 389.8
13:00 10-yr Note Auction (bl)* 23