While the broader uptrend in rates remains technically intact, the first trading day of the week pushed back in a friendly direction.  In fact, it was a continuation of a 2-day move that technically began with solid gains on Friday, thus inviting the question "is this the big bounce?"  

Rather than assume this is a reversal of the negative momentum that's been intact since the beginning of September, the safer plan for now is to view it as a consolidation ahead of the bigger decisions.  We'll need to hear from Trump on the Fed Chair nomination before becoming too confident in the next wave of momentum.  

Between now and then, there's not much to be done from a strategic standpoint.  We could obsess over this week's economic data--some of which is typically quite relevant--but any impact from the data could be easily overshadowed by the Fed Chair news.  There's also market movement potential from fiscal headlines (mainly tax reform speedbumps).

From a technical standpoint, breaking much below 2.36% would signal an early lead-off in a stronger direction.  We seem to be struggling with that level to begin the day.

2017-10-31 open2

MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
FNMA 3.5
102-26 : +0-00
10 YR
2.3721 : +0.0021
Pricing as of 10/31/17 9:11AMEST

Tomorrow's Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Forecast Prior
Tuesday, Oct 31
8:30 Employment costs (%) Q3 0.7 0.5
9:00 CaseShiller 20 yy (% ) Aug 6.0 5.8
9:45 Chicago PMI * Oct 61.0 65.2
10:00 Consumer confidence * Oct 121.0 119.8