As today begins, the objective details of the ECB policy move are already out.  With the exception of the percent change in the € amount of bond purchases, the ECB has essentially copycatted the Fed's tapering move from 2013.  Especially:

  • Rates to remain at present levels for extended period--well past the expiration of asset purchases
  • Reinvest principal back into same purchases for same extended period

Those two bullet points are directly out of the Fed's playbook.  From there, if we look at the Fed's gradual tapering from full throttle to zero over the course of 10 months, it's roughly the same net tapering effect as what the ECB announced today (an instant 50% drop in purchases that remains steady for the next 9 months).

Draghi's press conference begins presently, and at this point, it's not really clear what he could say to offer any additional details.  Even then, it seems safer to assume that the Fed has blazed this trail already, and the ECB will continue to mirror and match.

In terms of trading levels, 10yr yields are beginning the day right above the important pivot point at 2.42%.  Holding above there is "bad," for lack of a more descriptive term.  We'll be discussing the technicals and the implications in more detail throughout the day on MBS Live, as always.

In terms of other data and events, Pending Home Sales is the only interesting economic report (Jobless Claims has been irrelevant for years and will remain so until the next downturn begins).  1pm brings the conclusion of this week's Treasury auction cycle with 7yr Notes. 

 


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.5
102-16 : +0-02
Treasuries
10 YR
2.4281 : -0.0159
Pricing as of 10/26/17 8:32AMEST

Tomorrow's Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Forecast Prior
Thursday, Oct 26
8:30 Continued jobless claims (ml) w/e 1.900 1.889
8:30 Jobless Claims (k) w/e 235 222
10:00 Pending Home Sales (%) Sep 0.2 -2.6
13:00 7-Yr Note Auction (bl)* 28