After having waited a day to begin trading this week due to yesterday's Columbus Day holiday, bond markets will spend today waiting for the week's more relevant data and events.  Those will begin in earnest tomorrow with two Treasury auctions (3 and 10yr) and the Fed Minutes (more detailed recap of most recent meeting).  Thursday brings the end of the week's Treasury auction cycle and Friday brings the week's biggest economic reports with the Consumer Price Index and Retail Sales.

Throughout those four days, we'll hear from various Fed speakers, but the lineup doesn't suggest any major bombshell potential.  Specifically, Kashkari, Kaplan and Evans haven't changed their tack recently, and they account for half of this week's speaking engagements.  Moreover, there are no scheduled appearances for the big 3 (Yellen, Fischer, or Dudley).  

Bonds are starting out the week in much the same way they ended last week: holding inside just slightly weaker territory versus Thursday afternoon--same story for stocks:

2017-10-10 open

In terms of technicals and momentum, we continue to watch the MACD forest for a return toward the zero line.  Normally, this technical indicator is "positive" if the bars are merely descending, but we recently had a "false positive" (bars started to descend, then bounced higher), thus forcing us to raise the bar for a rally signal.  The fast and slow stochastics tend to agree as both are holding equivocally near 'oversold' territory.  In simple terms, bonds are sideways near their weakest recent levels.  They have a chance to improve, but they have yet to give a clear indication of their intent to do so.

2017-10-10 open2


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.5
102-30 : +0-00
Treasuries
10 YR
2.3589 : -0.0091
Pricing as of 10/10/17 8:58AMEST

Tomorrow's Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Forecast Prior
Wednesday, Oct 11
0:00 Roll Date - Fannie Mae 30YR, Freddie Mac 30YR *
11:30 3-Yr Note Auction (bl) 24
13:00 10-yr Note Auction (bl)*
Thursday, Oct 12
8:30 Producer Prices (%) Sep 0.4 0.2
8:30 Core Producer Prices YY (%)* Sep 2.0 2
8:30 Jobless Claims (k) w/e 252 260
8:30 Continued jobless claims (ml) w/e 1.938 1.938
13:00 30-Yr Bond Auction (bl)*
Friday, Oct 13
8:30 Retail Sales (%)* Sep 1.7 -0.2
8:30 Core CPI Year/Year (%)* Sep 1.8 1.7
8:30 CPI mm, sa (%)* Sep 0.6 0.4
10:00 Consumer Sentiment Oct 95.1 95.1
10:00 5yr Inflation Outlook (%)* Oct 2.5
10:00 1yr Inflation Outlook (%)* Oct 2.7
10:00 Business Inventories (% ) Jul 0.2 0.5