Between the overnight session and domestic trading hours, the following voices tried to get inside the head of bond markets:

  • A North Korean missile launch asked bonds to rally from "safe haven" demand.  They sorta did at first.
  • Hawkish comments from a British central banker asked global bond yields to move higher.  US Treasuries sorta complied
  • Weaker Retail Sales data opened the door for bonds to rally in the morning.  They began to walk through.
  • The 9:30am NYSE tradeflows and stronger inflation expectations in the 10am Sentiment data said "not so fast" to the bond rally.  Bonds heeded the warning
  • And finally, an ongoing stock rally provided justification for bonds to weaken all day long, but they did nothing of the sort.

Despite all of the above, 10yr yields hit the 3pm closing levels today at virtually the same closing levels as yesterday.  Each motivation (except the afternoon stock rally) was paid a token amount of attention, but was never given permission to stand out above the others.  Ultimately bonds wanted to be sideways today.  The only reason for red on trade screens is yesterday's late day rally that set strong "previous day" closing levels.  It's really the 3pm-3pm closing levels that matter, and as stated, those are flat.

In short, the end of this week's correction to last week's rally has been confirmed.  We now wait for the next dose of inspiration--possibly from next Wednesday's FOMC festivities.  Those will include not only the policy announcement, but also the updated forecasts ("dots") as well as a Yellen press conference.