Yesterday morning's chart is just as germane for today, perhaps more so.  It shows how bonds have reacted to CPI data over the past few months.  Although not every instance is a perfect argument for its relevance, it's safe to say that there's no other economic report with as much market movement potential at the moment.  

2017-9-13 open

Why is that?  

Simply put, no one cares about the jobs report right now.  Payrolls have been reasonably strong for an exceptionally long time.  NFP numbers over 150k are old news.  Low unemployment is boring.  Neither of the above are necessarily translating to the real economy as they might have in the past.  And most importantly, the Fed doesn't need any more job growth to justify hiking rates and removing accommodation.  

The Fed needs  inflation--mysteriously absent inflation.  CPI is the NFP of inflation data, even though everyone talks about Core PCE being the Fed's favorite metric.  Today's expectations call for a drop in Core Y/Y CPI from 1.7 to 1.6%.  The Fed really would like to see that at 2% before getting more aggressive with policy.  Some would argue that the existing rate hikes are contributing to the sub 2% reading in the first place, but the Fed doesn't see it that way.  Either way, if today's report deviates much from consensus, it could have a material impact on next week's Fed Announcement. 


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.5
103-10 : +0-01
Treasuries
10 YR
2.2023 : +0.0073
Pricing as of 9/14/17 8:27AMEST

Tomorrow's Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Forecast Prior
Thursday, Sep 14
8:30 CPI mm, sa (%)* Aug 0.3 0.1
8:30 Core CPI Year/Year (%)* Aug 1.6 1.7
8:30 Jobless Claims (k) w/e 300 298