We talk a lot about participation among traders dropping off at mid-day when European markets close, but today's version turned bond markets into a veritable ghost town.  Before that, yields had actually done a nice job of returning inside yesterday's trading range and under the 2.16% technical level after spiking early.  I'm inclined to (mostly) disregard everything after that as serendipitous leftover trading--not indicative of the real market.

Unfortunately, that won't prevent traders from selling bonds on Tuesday if that's what they're inclined to do.  It simply means today, in and of itself, wasn't quite as weak as afternoon levels would suggest.  

Back to this "spiking early" business.  What's up with that?  After all, NFP was much weaker than expected, so we should have rallied, right?  

I discuss the answers in great detail in the attached video (for MBS Live members).  The short version is that jobs data ain't what it used to be.  A weak number was fairly well baked-in.  Technicals were a bit ominous.  Month-end trading helped more than normal yesterday, and ISM Manufacturing data is really what added fuel to this morning's fire.

The bottom line is that it's too soon to call a bounce, but it is a risk that's worthy of assessing next week.


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.5
103-15 : -0-05
Treasuries
10 YR
2.1657 : +0.0437
Pricing as of 9/1/17 6:05PMEST

Today's Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
3:41PM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Negative Reprice Risk Remains in Play as MBS Drift at Lows
10:03AM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Negative Reprice Risk Increasing After Stronger ISM
9:07AM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Bonds Into Negative Territory; Reprice Risk for Early Lenders
8:43AM  :  Bonds Rally (at First) on Weak NFP

MBS Live Chat Highlights
A recap of featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Matthew Graham  :  "could be motivating a bit of bond weakness just now, but that's not a conclusive assessment"
Matthew Graham  :  "(BFW) *TRUMP IS SAID TO SIGNAL WON'T SHUT DOWN GOVT OVER WALL FUNDS:WP"
Victor Burek  :  "Goldman lowers Q3 GDP est from 2.8% to 2.7% on sharp drop in construction spending"