The longer the post-election trade plays out (in 3 months, it will have been a year!), the flatter it looks.  There have essentially been two similar sideways ranges in 10yr yields, punctuated by an "adjustment" that accounted for a slightly more dovish tone from the Fed in March.  The first range was roughly 2.3 to 2.6 during the first 4.5 months of the post-election trade.  The subsequent 4 months held within a similarly narrow range of 2.12-2.42.  With yields at 2.24 this morning, we're essentially in the middle of the current range.

Newsflash! Markets only stay this flat for this long amid rampant uncertainty.  Politics, Geopolitics, Fed tightening, ECB talking about tightening, BOJ never again tightening, various Trump staff headlines, stock surge, stock sell-off fear, lack of inflation despite strong jobs... How many reasons shall we count?  All contribute to broader uncertainty.

One certainty about an uncertain trading environment is that traders will follow other traders.  This is both due to necessity and the fact that it's less risky to trade like others are trading if you're not sure about the underlying market-moving themes.

Today begins with another instance of a block trade being followed up by big volume in the subsequent minute of trading (just like we saw yesterday).  Today's big minute was only in the 40k contract range (yesterday's was over 60k), but that's still plenty big to observe the dynamic between the bolder lemmings at the front and the blind faith of the rest of the pack.  

2017-8-3 open

There's almost nothing negative to be said about this except for the fact that 10yr yields still haven't convincingly broken below the 2.22-2.24% barrier that's been acting as a floor since mid July.  At the very least, it's starting to suggest the consolidation trends discussed yesterday are potentially breaking in our favor.  They've already done so in Europe and are pushing the lower line in US 10yr yields.

2017-8-3 open2


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.5
103-05 : +0-03
Treasuries
10 YR
2.2460 : -0.0160
Pricing as of 8/3/17 9:04AMEST

Tomorrow's Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Forecast Prior
Thursday, Aug 03
8:30 Initial Jobless Claims (k) w/e 242 244
10:00 ISM N-Mfg Bus Act * Jul 59.6 60.8
10:00 ISM N-Mfg PMI * Jul 57.0 57.4