"Impending breakout" sounds a bit more dramatic than reality may prove to be, but one never can be sure what the future will hold for bond markets.  What we CAN be sure of is that bonds have been locked well inside last Tuesday's range for 5 straight days now, and this range-bind persists even as trading begins for August.

The first day of a new month can often see a shift or acceleration in bond market movement.  Early trading suggests that's going to be a tall order today.  So instead, let's simply revisit the lines in the sand we're watching to determine bigger-picture shifts in momentum.

First and foremost, there's last Tuesday's range (white dotted lines).  Breaking higher or lower from there would be the first indication of new momentum--like 'moving on to the next round' to face the next closest technical level.  The yellow lines show a consolidation pattern (based primarily on the "lower highs" since May, because the "higher lows" haven't been as reliable considering the breakout in June) that will eventually break, even if bonds continue holding flat.  

2017-8-1 open

That leaves the teal lines as the biggest deals in the medium-big picture, with the conclusion being that a break of either teal line signifies a strong vote in favor of momentum in the corresponding direction.  In other words, a break below 2.21% makes a good case for a challenge of 2017's lows.  A break above 2.40% makes a good case for a return to 2017's earlier range (which topped out just over 2.6%).


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.5
103-01 : +0-03
Treasuries
10 YR
2.2870 : -0.0050
Pricing as of 8/1/17 9:51AMEST

Tomorrow's Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Forecast Prior
Tuesday, Aug 01
8:30 Consumption, adjusted mm (%)* Jun 0.1 0.1
8:30 Personal income mm (%) Jun 0.4 0.4
8:30 Core PCE price index yy (%) Jun 1.4
10:00 ISM Manufacturing PMI * Jul 56.5 57.8
10:00 ISM Mfg Prices Paid * Jul 55.5 55.0
10:00 Construction spending (%)* Jun 0.4 0.0