As scheduled, the FOMC has released the minutes from it's recent policy meeting ending April 29th.  Here is the full text.

Some of the highlights are as follows:

  • GDP forecasts cut again.  Previous range was -1.3 to -0.5.  New forecast is -2.0 to -1.3.  2010 still seen turning positive again
  • Most Fed Governors see a "return to long run potential" taking 5 to 6 years
  • Most expected gradual recovery with elevated unemployment through 2011
  • FEWER saw risk to inflation outlook
  • some note risk that inflation could stay persistently too low
  • Most expected Inflation to be subdued over next few years
  • Most agreed inflation risks are balanced
  • Economy still facing significant downside risks.
  • Available data indicates stabilization still tentative
  • Some evidence emerging that the RATE of contraction is starting to decrease.  (aka "less bad")
  • Many believed risk of protracted deflationary period had decreased
  • Security Purchases remain intact
  • SOME THOUGHT SECURITIES PURCHASES SHOULD BE INCREASED IN ORDER TO STIMULATE RECOVERY
  • Long run forecasts unchanged
  • 2009 core PCE target revised upward from .9 - 1.1 to 1.0-1.5
  • 2009 unemployment forecast now 9.2 to 9.6 % versus 8.5 to 8.8% previously

 

Here's how Stocks and the 10 yr have reacted:

 

More analysis will follow, but here's what's important: don't read too much into this rally.  Without a substantial treasury rally, MBS profit takers will come out and prices will fall.  In addition, the fact that we haven't seen stocks sell off MORE indicates the possibility of a bounce in a bit.  There is always an initial "I think it's going this way!" spike, but it takes a bit more time for the markets to decide how they feel.  Stay tuned for more shortly.