As scheduled, the FOMC has released the minutes from it's recent policy meeting ending April 29th. Here is the full text.
Some of the highlights are as follows:
- GDP forecasts cut again. Previous range was -1.3 to -0.5. New forecast is -2.0 to -1.3. 2010 still seen turning positive again
 - Most Fed Governors see a "return to long run potential" taking 5 to 6 years
 - Most expected gradual recovery with elevated unemployment through 2011
 - FEWER saw risk to inflation outlook
 - some note risk that inflation could stay persistently too low
 - Most expected Inflation to be subdued over next few years
 - Most agreed inflation risks are balanced
 - Economy still facing significant downside risks.
 - Available data indicates stabilization still tentative
 - Some evidence emerging that the RATE of contraction is starting to decrease. (aka "less bad")
 - Many believed risk of protracted deflationary period had decreased
 - Security Purchases remain intact
 - SOME THOUGHT SECURITIES PURCHASES SHOULD BE INCREASED IN ORDER TO STIMULATE RECOVERY
 - Long run forecasts unchanged
 - 2009 core PCE target revised upward from .9 - 1.1 to 1.0-1.5
 - 2009 unemployment forecast now 9.2 to 9.6 % versus 8.5 to 8.8% previously
 

Here's how Stocks and the 10 yr have reacted:

More analysis will follow, but here's what's important: don't read too much into this rally. Without a substantial treasury rally, MBS profit takers will come out and prices will fall. In addition, the fact that we haven't seen stocks sell off MORE indicates the possibility of a bounce in a bit. There is always an initial "I think it's going this way!" spike, but it takes a bit more time for the markets to decide how they feel. Stay tuned for more shortly.

