For the entire first quarter of 2017, bonds held inside a range from roughly 2.30 to 2.60 in terms of 10yr yields.  This was the purgatory we occupied after the US presidential election as we waited to see if things would get worse before they got better.

Fortunately, a combination of political drama and friendly central bankers resulted in a nice break below 2.30.  After that, the range shifted to 2.12-2.42.  On the 2 occasions where yields bounced on 2.42 as a ceiling, there's been some hesitation in moving back below 2.30.  Now between yesterday and today's early trading, we're seeing a 3rd example of that same sort of bounce.

2017-7-13 open2

As the chart shows, the past 2 examples of these "pauses" at the 2.30 (or 2.305% for hair-splitters) were resolved fairly quickly and positively.  If the same thing does NOT happen this time around, it would imply a reinvigoration of this old resistance level.  In the short term, the biggest source of inspiration for a bounce or break will come from tomorrow morning's CPI data--assuming it's at least somewhat different from expectations.

That's not to say domestic economic data is the only market mover in town.  Indeed, Yellen moved markets in a friendly direction yesterday, and the ECB moved bonds back in an unfriendly direction overnight with unnamed sources suggesting a likely tapering announcement at the September 7th meeting.  That news alone was enough to bring 10yr yields up from 2.305% overnight to trade early domestic hours in the 2.33-2.34% range.


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.5
102-19 : -0-02
Treasuries
10 YR
2.3391 : +0.0121
Pricing as of 7/13/17 8:55AMEST

Tomorrow's Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Forecast Prior
Thursday, Jul 13
8:30 Core Producer Prices YY (%)* Jun 2.0 2.1
8:30 Producer Prices (%) Jun 0.0 0.0
8:30 Core Producer Prices MM (%)* Jun 0.2 0.3
8:30 Initial Jobless Claims (k) w/e 245 248
13:00 30-Yr Bond Auction (bl)*