This week's economic calendar is fairly light, with no top tier reports until Thursday (Producer Prices) and Friday (CPI/Retail Sales).  For what it's worth, the Producer Price Index (PPI) typically isn't a major market mover, but I've lumped it in with the "top tier" designation this week due to the Fed's shift to a laser-beam focus on inflation metrics.  Even then, it will be the Consumer Price Index (CPI) the following day that has the greatest market movement potential (a weak CPI was the source of the rally on 6/14, upstaging even the Fed Announcement).

Ironically, CPI comes out only AFTER a fairly active slate of Fed speeches for the week.  By far and away, the most important Fed speeches will be from Yellen as she delivers her semiannual congressional testimonies.  This is an opportunity mostly for political grandstanding among politicians, but there are frequently a few good questions that address current, importance monetary policy considerations.

When and if such questions are asked and answered, we'll get a slightly clearer picture about where domestic bond market motivations are coming from.  While we'd never ever rule out the Fed as a critical market mover, there's reason to believe that European bond market panic has been behind most of the recent weakness.  In that sense, we hope to see Yellen rock the boat for better or worse, because it will add a lot of clarity as to how we should approach economic data and events from there on out.

From a technical perspective, this week begins with bonds leveling-off, but still very much respecting the plateau seen last Thursday afternoon.  That creates some hope for a bounce, but momentum hasn't even begun to shift in our favor  (as seen in the 2nd chart below).

2017-7-10 day ahead 2

2017-7-10 day ahead


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.5
102-14 : +0-01
Treasuries
10 YR
2.3838 : -0.0092
Pricing as of 7/10/17 9:49AMEST

Tomorrow's Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Forecast Prior
Tuesday, Jul 11
10:00 Wholesale inventories mm (%) May 0.3 0.3
10:00 Wholesale sales mm (%) May 0.2 -0.4
13:00 3-Yr Note Auction (bl) 24
Wednesday, Jul 12
7:00 Mortgage Refinance Index w/e 1391.0
7:00 Mortgage Market Index w/e 423.3
13:00 10-yr Note Auction (bl)*
Thursday, Jul 13
8:30 Core Producer Prices YY (%)* Jun 2.0 2.1
8:30 Producer Prices (%) Jun 0.0 0.0
8:30 Initial Jobless Claims (k) w/e 245 248
13:00 30-Yr Bond Auction (bl)*
Friday, Jul 14
8:30 Retail sales mm (%)* Jun 0.1 -0.3
8:30 Core CPI Year/Year (%)* Jun 1.7 1.7
8:30 CPI mm, sa (%)* Jun 0.1 -0.1
8:30 Real weekly earnings mm (%) Jun 0.3
9:15 Capacity Utilization (%) Jun 76.7 76.6
9:15 Industrial Production (%)* Jun 0.3 0.0
10:00 Business inventories mm (% ) May 0.3 -0.2
10:00 Consumer Sentiment 5-Yr Inf Prelim (%) Jul 2.5
10:00 Consumer Sentiment Prelim Jul 95.0 95.1