Bond markets found their first green day since June 27th today and for no particular reason apart from today being the first full trading day in July.  That assertion comes courtesy of the volume and volatility seen during the various opening and closing times for stocks and bonds. 

First up, we had the 3am European bond open which brought US yields right up to the ceiling seen on Monday afternoon.  After a modest bounce, the 8:20am CME open pushed rates right back to the ceiling.  At 9:30am, stocks got involved (including bond market ETFs), and rates embarked on their best rally of the day.  

There was arguably some help along the way from weaker Factory Orders data, but that's a "maybe," whereas a tradeflow-based move is definitely a pervasive ingredient in today's trading.  The tradeflow motivation was confirmed as bonds serendipitously rallied heading into the 3pm CME close after looking pessimistic in the wake of the 2pm Fed minutes.

From here, we turn to 2 days of potentially important economic data to confirm or reject this nice little bout of bond market defiance.  Friday is the bigger day with NFP at 8:30am, but tomorrow has ISM non-Manufacturing at 10am.


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.5
102-20 : +0-06
Treasuries
10 YR
2.3249 : -0.0211
Pricing as of 7/5/17 5:00PMEST

Today's Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
3:41PM  :  Post-FOMC Weakness Erased
2:08PM  :  Bonds Bounce Off Best Levels After Fed Minutes
9:29AM  :  Domestic Opening Bell For Bonds Proving Unfriendly so Far

MBS Live Chat Highlights
A recap of featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Ted Rood  :  "Like going to the track and breaking even, it's a moral victory?"
Matthew Graham  :  "So far, today is much nicer than the last 5, even after this weakness."
William Hansen  :  "Cant catch a break."
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- FED POLICYMAKERS DISCUSSED POSSIBLE REASONS WHY FINANCIAL CONDITIONS HAD NOT TIGHTENED FOLLOWING HIKES IN FED FUNDS RATE"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - SEVERAL FED POLICYMAKERS WANTED TO ANNOUNCE START OF BALANCE-SHEET TRIMMING WITHIN A 'COUPLE OF MONTHS,' OTHERS WANTED TO WAIT UNTIL LATER IN 2017"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - SEVERAL FED POLICYMAKERS WERE CONCERNED RECENT SOFTNESS IN INFLATION MIGHT PERSIST DUE TO LIMITED PASS-THROUGH FROM RESOURCE UTILIZATION"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - SEVERAL FED POLICYMAKERS SAW RECENT INCREASE IN IMPORT PRICES AS CONSISTENT WITH INFLATION RISING IN MEDIUM TERM"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - MOST FED POLICYMAKERS VIEWED RECENT SOFTNESS IN INFLATION DATA HAS HAVING LITTLE BEARING ON INFLATION TREND -MINUTES FROM JUNE 13-14 MEETING"