We've been watching the intraday trading ranges in bond markets to keep an eye on just how flat things have been in the wake of last Wednesday's big trading day (due to econ data and the Fed).  "Inside day" is a term that comes up when things are this flat.  It refers to a day's trading range falling "inside" the previous day's range.  

This week has been notable in that Tuesday and Friday were both inside days.  That's particularly striking today as it required a narrow trading range of a mere 2.44bps (2.142 - 2.166).  

Adding to the intrigue is the fact that there were a few tradeable headlines--especially from Fed speakers who seemed to be singing more dovish tunes on the prospect for inflation to frustrate the policy path.  Then again, the grudgingly slow admission of economic reality among Fed members is one of the reasons rates are "hanging out" in this low range in the first place.  

Markets want to see if a more robust slate of economic data casts a more decisive vote to break this floor or bounce.  Next week's line-up might be enough, especially given the just-announced Yellen speech on the 27th.


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.5
103-08 : +0-02
Treasuries
10 YR
2.1440 : -0.0090
Pricing as of 6/23/17 5:30PMEST

Today's Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
10:29AM  :  Slight Pressure After Home Sales Data, But Range Remains

MBS Live Chat Highlights
A recap of featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Matthew Graham  :  "very early on in the saga to boot: http://housingnewsletters.com/mgraham/5838abb436cb281fc82b7af8"
Matthew Graham  :  "Refis origination numbers are clearly sensitive to rates--purchases less so. Freddie thought those numbers would be more sensitive and/or that rates would be higher than they have been. It was pretty plain to see that refi numbers didn't really have that far to fall, and things have played out exactly as you all advised your clients and partners via your weekly marketing newsletters."
John Tassios  :  "you think mtg industry sensitive to rates?"
Matthew Graham  :  "Had been $1.545 Trillion. Now $1.755 Trillion. Originations no longer looking "crushed" as Freddie predicted in Nov 2016"
Matthew Graham  :  "$210 bln swing in our favor from last month's outlook"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - FREDDIE MAC - EXPECT MORTGAGE ORIGINATION VOLUMES TO DECLINE $370 BLN FOR 2017"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - FREDDIE MAC - WE EXPECT HOUSING STARTS AND HOME SALES TO FIRM IN COMING MONTHS AND FOR 2017 TO EXCEED 2016'S BEST-IN-A-DECADE LEVELS"
Michael Baker  :  "I'd just love for a Congressman to sit across from me and explain his Closing Disclosure to me. #GoodLuckBub"

Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Monday, Jun 26
8:30 Nondefense ex-air (%)* May 0.3 0.1
8:30 Durable goods (%)* May -0.6 -0.8
13:00 2-Yr Note Auction (bl) 26
Tuesday, Jun 27
9:00 CaseShiller 20 mm SA (%) Apr 0.5 0.9
10:00 Consumer confidence * Jun 116.0 117.9
13:00 5-Yr Note Auction (bl)* 34
Wednesday, Jun 28
7:00 Mortgage Market Index w/e 445.2
10:00 Pending homes index * May 109.8
13:00 7-Yr Note Auction (bl)* 28
Thursday, Jun 29
8:30 GDP Final (%) Q1 1.2 1.2
Friday, Jun 30
8:30 Consumption, adjusted mm (%)* May 0.1 0.4
8:30 Personal income mm (%) May 0.3 0.4
8:30 Core PCE price index yy (%) May 1.5
8:30 PCE price index mm (%)* May 0.2
9:45 Chicago PMI * Jun 58.0 59.4
10:00 U Mich Sentiment Final (ip) Jun 94.5 94.5