Today was destined to be a sideways grind at slightly weaker levels for bond markets.  This would have extended the theme that had been in place since Wednesday's FOMC events.  The weakness probably wouldn't have erased Wednesday's gains.  The bigger-picture rally wouldn't have even come close to being challenged, and we'd just be slightly more anxious heading into next week.

Instead, this morning's residential construction data was weak enough to make a dent in markets (a positive dent for bonds).  Housing Starts fell 5.5 percent to 1.092m vs a median forecast of 1.215m.  Building permits fell 3.9 percent to 1.168 vs a median forecast of 1.250m.  Bonds responded immediately--turning positive on the day and rallying through the European close at noon Eastern.  From there, we drifted sideways in slightly stronger territory.

Bottom line, the willingness to respond to econ data and to rally into positive territory goes a long way toward ruling out bigger risks of bigger post-Fed bounces.  We were already mostly able to do that with yesterday's flat performance, but a 2nd day of "ground-holding or better" is always nice.


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.5
103-06 : +0-04
Treasuries
10 YR
2.1514 : -0.0106
Pricing as of 6/16/17 5:03PMEST

Today's Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
8:37AM  :  Bonds Recover Some Overnight Losses After Housing Data

MBS Live Chat Highlights
A recap of featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Matt Hodges  :  "could we ask Kaplan to provide his remarks on a day and time that traders actually care about...tree falling in woods..."
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - FED'S KAPLAN SAYS FED SHOULD BE VERY CAUTIOUS, PATIENT IN RAISING RATES FURTHER"
Matthew Graham  :  "lighter than the last 3 days, but not extraordinarily so. Still, your intuition is good. The pucker factor is definitely dialed down today. We're seeing an inconsequential and orderly evacuation of "high conviction" trading."
Gerry Suarez  :  "MG, are trading volumes extraordinarily light? I'm getting the impression traders have checked out for the weekend..."
Matthew Graham  :  "well, the roll isn't a singular date necessarily, the last of the previous month's coupon would be closed out on the previous Friday."
Matthew Graham  :  "A) it will be in "roll dates" at the bottom of the econ calendar, B) it was June 12th (new coupon on morning of 6/12)"
Matt Hodges  :  "it was Monday for Conv 30 years, BH"
Brian Hofmann  :  "MG-can you confirm the last "roll" date for me?"