Bond markets may not give a stellar performance today, offering resounding confirmation of an ongoing rally.  Conversely, they're not likely to rise enough to raise serious questions about an ongoing rally.  

When it comes to getting a sense of potential outcomes for the immediate future, there are 2 things I would keep in mind today.  One of them is omnipresent and the other is specific to the current situation.

Omnipresent: if there were a good way to know what the next few days of trading would look like in any given market beyond a reasonable doubt, everyone would trade accordingly.  Of course, not everyone can be a buyer at the same time or vice versa, so markets would "break" and the trade that looked like a sure thing would be at risk of a paradoxical reversal.  In that sense, it's actually a good thing to see some balance in the force after Wednesday's big rally.  

Current Situation: to dovetail on the point above (i.e. "good to see some balance"), yesterday's bounce back was far from heart-breaking.  In fact, yesterday's closing levels were the lowest "consecutive close" of the year (a level that bonds have close at or below for at least 2 days in a row).  Technicians would refer to this as a "confirmed" level.  In other words, Wednesday's break below 2.17 was a "test," just like the tests seen on 6/6 and 6/2.  In both those cases, yields were back above 2.17 the following day.  

2017-6-16 open

The bottom line is this: considering that we're beginning the day in slightly stronger territory and that yesterday was the first time all year we've seen a consecutive close under 2.17%, we're far from giving up hope on a broader move toward lower yields.  That doesn't mean we shouldn't be cautious or defensive if markets shift to suggest it (or simply for risk-averse clients).  But they definitely haven't suggested it yet.


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.5
103-04 : +0-02
Treasuries
10 YR
2.1566 : -0.0054
Pricing as of 6/16/17 9:07AMEST

Tomorrow's Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Forecast Prior
Friday, Jun 16
8:30 Housing starts number mm (ml)* May 1.215 1.172
8:30 Building permits: number (ml)* May 1.250 1.228