While we do have some economic data to get through today (Producer Prices, which are already out stronger than expected, and the afternoon's 30yr bond auction), the lion's share of the focus remains on the bigger picture and the bigger-ticket events set for Wednesday.  Chief among these are the Fed events tomorrow afternoon, although the raft of relevant economic data could definitely have an impact as well.

Any potential impacts will be playing out against the backdrop of several relevant technical levels that serve as milestones in the bond markets journey away from previous 2017 range  and hopefully into a new, lower range.  We've seen this exodus play out since April, when yields first broke below the lower end of their post-election range.  That lower boundary could arguably be anything between 2.25 and 2.31, but it doesn't matter in the bigger picture.  

It's rare to see yields exhibit "perfect behavior" when it comes to technical levels.  Rather, we're looking for "more consistent behavior" around certain levels vs other, random levels.  The chart below outlines several of those levels that have been more relevant that any other random level in recent weeks.  These milestones will help us keep an eye on how the battle is progressing.  For now, the recent downtrend is broken, and we're attempting to hold one of the lower pivot points around 2.22%.

2017-6-13 open


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.5
102-30 : -0-01
Treasuries
10 YR
2.2214 : +0.0084
Pricing as of 6/13/17 8:45AMEST

Tomorrow's Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Forecast Prior
Tuesday, Jun 13
8:30 Core Producer Prices YY (%)* May 2.0 1.9
8:30 Core Producer Prices MM (%)* May 0.2 0.4
13:00 30-Yr Bond Auction (bl)*