Today's NFP report certainly could have been damaging for bond markets if it contained a significant revision to last month's low 98k headline.  It didn't.  In fact, last month was revised even lower to 79k!  It's a good thing too, because this month's headline NFP came in slightly hotter, at 211k vs 185k.  The negative revision helped offset the positive headline and bonds escaped the day with only minimal volatility, ultimately hitting 5pm almost perfectly unchanged.  The end.

No seriously... that's about as complicated as today ever got.  So Happy Cinco de Mayo!

If you want more analysis, MBS Live subscribers can watch the attached video, which offers a pretty swell recap of the day and week, as well as a quick look ahead at the weekend's French election and broader bond market trends.


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.5
102-19 : +0-02
Treasuries
10 YR
2.3505 : -0.0055
Pricing as of 5/5/17 7:11PMEST

Today's Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
12:38PM  :  Bonds Recover; Cruise Control Potential From Here
10:12AM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Negative Reprice Risk is Increasing, But Not by Much
8:35AM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Bonds Bounce Back After Initial Weakness Following NFP

MBS Live Chat Highlights
A recap of featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Matthew Graham  :  "i guess these guys are getting my emails"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - FED'S BULLARD SAYS FED NEEDS TO INCORPORATE BOND-BUYING INTO ITS PERMANENT ARSENAL"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - ROSENGREN SAYS IT IS INEVITABLE THAT FED WILL NEED TO EXPAND BALANCE SHEET IN FUTURE RECESSIONS"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - FED'S WILLIAMS: MORTGAGE AND TREASURY BONDS TO EVENTUALLY ROLL OFF; NOT WORRIED THIS WOULD ENDANGER FANNIE, FREDDIE"
Matthew Graham  :  "the conclusion is that the Fed is starting to get worried about the next downturn coming sooner vs later"
Jason Anker  :  "the answer is exciting for us!"
Matthew Graham  :  "now, taking this one step further, what's the conclusion?"
Andrew Haynes  :  "good thing for MBS :)"
Jason Anker  :  "100%"
Matthew Graham  :  ""see... we were able to buy a bunch of bonds, and then get them off our balance sheet. So it's OK if we want to buy some more bonds now!""
Jason Anker  :  "make sure the gun is properly loaded for next time"
Andrew Haynes  :  "sounds about right MG"
Matthew Graham  :  "I get the impression that the Fed must have talked quite a bit about slowing down hikes and focusing on balance sheet reduction."
Matthew Graham  :  "In stark contrast to Fischer earlier on NOT adopting a rules-based approach"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - FED'S WILLIAMS DOES NOT COMMENT ON CURRENT RATE-HIKE EXPECTATIONS"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - FED'S WILLIAMS SAYS NEW POLICY FRAMEWORK IMPLIES 'LOWER FOR LONGER' INTEREST RATES"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - WILLIAMS SAYS FED SHOULD 'VERY SERIOUSLY' CONSIDER ADOPTING INFLATION PRICE-LEVEL TARGETING"

Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Friday, May 05
8:30 Non-farm payrolls (k)* Apr +211 185 98
8:30 Private Payrolls (k)* Apr +194 185 89
8:30 Unemployment rate mm (%)* Apr 4.4 4.6 4.5
8:30 Manufacturing payrolls (k)* Apr +6 10 11
8:30 Average workweek hrs (hr)* Apr 34.4 34.4 34.3
8:30 Average earnings mm (%) Apr +0.3 0.3 0.2