Europe has been the driving force for US bond markets over the past 2 days.  Perhaps this will continue to be the case or perhaps it's simply due to US bond markets reaching an important technical level and hopping on to the nearest bandwagon of trading inspiration.  

To be sure, France is not the US when it comes to the country's impact on the global economy.  And Marine Le Pen is not Donald Trump.  Nonetheless, markets have viewed a Le Pen victory as a potential destabilizing factor for the European Union.  Unlike the paradoxical Trump trade, markets are pretty sure this one wouldn't suddenly turn out to be horrible for the bond market and amazing for stocks.

As such, European stocks and bonds have been under varying amounts of pressure as Le Pen's chances have ebbed and flowed.  The past 2 days have seen the odds of a Le Pen victory shrink enough for European stocks and bond yields to stop losing ground and head back in the other direction.  

As far as US markets are concerned, Treasuries and MBS have moved almost exclusively during the times of day that European markets are open (and in the same direction implied by European bonds).  There's no reason to expect that to stop until after Sunday's election in France, barring an unexpectedly potent fiscal or geopolitical headline.


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.5
102-29 : -0-05
Treasuries
10 YR
2.2356 : +0.0336
Pricing as of 4/20/17 5:29PMEST

Today's Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
12:10PM  :  ALERT ISSUED: More Reprice Risk After European Close
10:13AM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Negative Reprice Risk Increasing For Some Lenders
9:25AM  :  European Markets Foreshadow Weekend Volatility

MBS Live Chat Highlights
A recap of featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - U.S. CONSUMER FINANCIAL PROTECTION BUREAU SUES OCWEN FINANCIAL CORP FOR "FOR FAILING BORROWERS THROUGHOUT MORTGAGE SERVICING PROCESS" -STATEMENT"
Christopher Stevens  :  "The text of a new bill is likely to circulate Friday "or by the weekend," White House officials say, with intentions to have a vote by midweek before the president reaches his 100-day mark."
Hugh W. Page  :  "Deja vu all over again"
Christopher Stevens  :  "The White House believes they are "close" to having the votes, one senior official said, but "people don't want to commit without seeing the text.""
Christopher Stevens  :  "Senior White House and Republican congressional leaders are planning another health care showdown next week as they seek again to pass legislation to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act."