Much like Friday, today was uneventful and moderately positive for bond markets. At some point, we have to consider the combined effects of these sorts of days. Individually, they're "nice," but not too terribly special. When they come in 2's and 3's, they add up to a potential shift in momentum.
Last week's bounce from 2.62% to 2.49% brought us to the cusp of discussing such a momentum shift. Up to that point, we could have simply been dealing with a "correction" to the market's Fed meeting preparation. In other words, perhaps yields just got a bit too high in expectation of a faster Fed rate hike timeline and simply had to fall a bit before deciding where to go from there.
Moving lower from last week's levels means we've found momentum that exists independent of the post-Fed correction--probably. It would be a far easier thing to conclude if today wasn't so quiet for bond markets. At the very least, the long-term ceiling in yields at 2.62% was confirmed. It remains to be seen if we'll fully re-enter the post-election range, but to even have a chance means we're in the best shape since late February.
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