Happy St. Patrick's Day.
Now that you're thinking about a country in Europe, let's talk about European bonds for a moment. US and European bonds have had an on-again/off-again relationship since at least 2010 when the European systemic credit panic started to take shape. The anticipation for, and eventual implementation of European QE in early 2015 was the last time that Europe commanded the lion's share of US bond market attention. It's been more of a 2-way street since then.
Depending on the day/week, we can still witness quite a bit of correlation between 10yr yields in the US and Germany (the European benchmark). Most recently, German Bunds look like they've had a hand in putting a stop to the post-Fed bond market rally. Is that a fair characterization? It depends on how much context you consider.
In the bigger picture, the sell-off that began in late February was clearly driven by the Fed and thus a bigger deal for US bond markets. While we can blame some of our inability to extend the post-Fed rally yesterday on European markets, European markets could much more easily blame Treasuries for dragging them back up to their highest yields of the year 3 days ago. In that context, both markets are off those highs, and not yet back to the post-Fed lows. The first one to break their respective ceiling or floor will be able to make a better case for leadership.
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