When it comes to the most simplistic charts of bond market trends, there are two "bad things" that rates could do in the current context. One of the two bad things happened today. 10yr yields broke above the upper boundary of the consolidation trend that began in early December. This refers to the converging white lines in the chart below.
As expected, the breakout was followed by additional momentum leading yields toward the 2.53% level. Ideally, this is where we would see support in the event of a breakout and indeed we did. The worst case scenario (the other "bad thing" mentioned above) is a ways off still. That would involve yields breaking above the highs seen in December--something that would truly support a longer-term, bigger-picture move toward higher rates.
Today's weakness wasn't a foregone conclusion. Bonds actually began the day well inside yesterday's range. It wasn't until the 8:30am data came out (stronger Retail Sales and higher inflation via CPI) that bonds began selling-off. Moments later, the highs of the day were in, and bonds managed to trickle back toward slightly smaller losses despite another record-setting day for stocks.
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