Bonds focused on technicals, range-trading, corporate supply, and the FOMC Minutes today.  It all added up to almost no net change across the board, so I hesitate to read too much into any single development.  

The tone was definitely weaker in the morning, volatile in the hour following the Fed, and then stronger into the close.  Big corporate bond offerings from Toyota ($3.5bln), Citi ($5.25bln), and a big Australian bank ($3.5bln) were launched in that same hour and likely added to the volatility.

As far as interpretations of the Fed Minutes are concerned, there were two distinct, opposing points.  On the one hand, the Fed saw some risk of inflation overheating, thus requiring even faster rate hikes.  On the other hand, the Fed pointed out the downside risks associated with a stronger dollar and further said that its more hike-biased stance was dependent on fiscal policies being effective.  In other words, if fiscal policies aren't effective, the Fed's tone will change.  While that's not too surprising or even that relevant, it was probably the best takeaway today for those trying to reconcile another decent day to begin the new year.  

For what it's worth, I think it's just as valid to forget about assigning nitty gritty 'cause and effect,' and simply say that various technical levels have been serving as cues for better buying and selling in bond markets.  10yr yields sold-off right after breaking below 2.44% today and then found their footing right after breaking yesterday afternoon's high yields of 2.46+.


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.5
102-11 : -0-01
Treasuries
10 YR
2.4390 : -0.0150
Pricing as of 1/4/17 5:02PMEST

Today's Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
2:08PM  :  FOMC Minutes Not Hurting Bonds
10:18AM  :  Bonds Quietly Digging in Heels While Stocks Advance

MBS Live Chat Highlights
A recap of featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
John Tassios  :  "So if some of Trump policies slow to be approved or stalled, then FED may only hike one or 2 times, not the 3 as proposed by Dot Plot."
John Tassios  :  "that's why Dots went up. They incorporated possibleTrump policies. Yellen never mentioned this , but minutes do."
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - ALMOST ALL POLICYMAKERS ANTICIPATED UNEMPLOYMENT RATE OVER NEXT TWO YEARS WOULD RUN BELOW ITS LONGER-TERM NORMAL LEVEL"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - POLICYMAKERS EMPHASIZED THEIR CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING, SIZE AND COMPOSITION OF ANY FUTURE FISCAL AND OTHER ECONOMIC POLICIES"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - ABOUT HALF OF POLICYMAKERS INCORPORATED ASSUMPTIONS OF GREATER FISCAL STIMULUS IN THEIR FORECASTS"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - ALMOST ALL FEDERAL RESERVE POLICYMAKERS SAW UPSIDE RISK TO ECONOMIC GROWTH FORECASTS ON EXPECTATION FISCAL POLICIES WILL BE MORE EXPANSIONARY UNDER TRUMP -MINUTES FROM DEC. 13-14 MEETING"
Matthew Graham  :  "I think the dots + the hike already told the story, but we'll see."
John Tassios  :  "I guess mkt mover , since based on prev meeting with Dot Plot increases. Thoughts MG?"
John Tassios  :  "MG - FED minutes coming out today? 2:00?"