Just an FYI with respect to the emerging caution at the end of the last post, despite a brief dip below our mini-ledge at 99-28 on 4.0's and 101-24+ on 4.5's, we are back near the highs of the day.  Stocks shot up to a breakeven point on the day, but bounced down a bit.  Treasury's remain mostly unphased and spreads have INCHED, and I mean INCHED steadily tighter since a wider open.  Looks for now like we'll make it to book close at 3pm somewhere in this range established by 11AM's lows and highs at 11:30 and 1:30.  Volatility however, remains a slightly more important than normal potentiality. 

From a somewhat broader perspective though, lock/float considerations are somewhat less opaque than normal.  Between 99-23 and PAR on 4.0's, floating is probably going to win out notwithstanding trying to time some more fleeting and smaller movements say, for instance, if we were to fall from 99-31 to 99-25 precipitously, we could have a reprice for the worse.  Once we've spent a day or two over PAR, and I'd be thinking about cashing in the gains that would likely be ensuing from lenders.  If supply is light now, as previously mentioned, lenders may have room to make it "not light" soon by tightening rate sheet spreads.  This means you could see some reasonably aggressive pricing from certain lenders who are looking to pump up the jam.  When you see those rates hit, MBS supply is not far behind, which will thusly bring in the selling pressure for MBS.  A delicate dance, slippery slope, etc... I know, but long story short, I'd ride this wave unless we move meaningfully toward 99-23, or meaninggully over PAR.  Just a taste of what's on my mind, but as always, FLOP your own GUT accordingly.