• Last week's moderate resilience could have been temporary due to 'month-end'
  • This could also help today, to some extent
  • If it doesn't, it's the first clue about a potential break of the long-term range
  • If data confirms that break, Fed rate hike fears will increase and bonds won't be happy

The holiday-shortened week begins on a bit of a gloomy note, both because of where bonds were already trading at the end of last week as well as the moderate weakness seen in the overnight session.  Any push toward higher yields this week will increasingly cast a vote for bigger picture losses as weakness would confirm a break out of the triangular, consolidative range seen in the chart below (teal lines).

2016-5-31 Treasury Techs

Not only would this break the trading range in yields, but it would also put an end to the similarly consolidative pattern in longer term momentum.  Fueling the fear is the fact that trading positions can often gain short term momentum as one month's trading ends and the next month's begins.  If this week's busy economic calendar also happens to suggest bond market weakness, things could get ugly.   

Now, this fear isn't necessarily destiny.  To be sure, there are plenty of reasons to be bullish about the longer term outlook for global rates.  But we have to respect the fact that temporary moves can still run counter to the longer term prevailing trend, and they can last longer than we might like when it comes to rate lock strategy.  Until the threats to the range subside, that strategy should probably remain 'defensive' as opposed to trusting that the range will be there to provide yet another bounce toward lower rates.


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.0
102-05 : -0-04
Treasuries
10 YR
1.8790 : +0.0440
Pricing as of 5/31/16 8:27AMEST

Tomorrow's Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Forecast Prior
Tuesday, May 31
8:30 Personal consump real mm (%)* Apr 0.0
8:30 Personal income mm (%) Apr 0.4 0.4
8:30 PCE price index mm (%)* Apr 0.1
9:00 CaseShiller 20 mm SA (%)* Mar 0.8 0.7
9:45 Chicago PMI * May 50.7 50.4
10:00 Consumer confidence * May 96.0 94.2
Wednesday, Jun 01
7:00 Mortgage Market Index w/e 496.5
10:00 ISM Manufacturing PMI * May 50.5 50.8
10:00 ISM Mfg Prices Paid * May 59.8 59.0
10:00 Construction spending (%)* Apr 0.6 0.3
Thursday, Jun 02
8:15 ADP National Employment (k)* May 178 156
8:30 Initial Jobless Claims (k)* w/e 270 268
8:30 Continued jobless claims (ml)* w/e 2.150 2.163
9:45 ISM-New York index * May 724.4
Friday, Jun 03
8:30 Non-farm payrolls (k)* May 162 160
8:30 International trade mm $ (bl)* Apr -41.3 -40.4
8:30 Unemployment rate mm (%)* May 4.9 5.0
10:00 ISM N-Mfg Bus Act * May 58.8
10:00 ISM N-Mfg PMI * May 55.5 55.7
10:00 Factory orders mm (%) Apr 1.9 1.5