• Not only have bonds confirmed the recent move back into "the range," they've kept going strong
  • 10yr yields hit 1.72, down 4.2bps, Fannie 3.0s up to 102-26 (+5 ticks)
  • Rates are really close to 3-year lows
  • Data itself didn't matter directly, but GDP revisions did, almost as much as Bunds

Today's gains were primarily a story of German Bunds, which is the benchmark of the European bond market.  Bunds rallied for a variety of reasons, not the least of which being a glut of almost universally weaker economic data.  This combined with several headlines (even Greece made a guest appearance as a market mover) to bring Bund yields very close to their all-time lows (.082 vs .049...  way within striking distance).

The pervasive global bond market rally was reinvigorated 3 weeks ago after the FOMC Announcement.  We'll talk more about why the Fed in the US is helping global rates move lower tomorrow.  For today, the important piece is that US bond markets have been trying to catch up with that move.  Yellen's speech lowered a barrier to those efforts last week and the ensuing trade has been strong.

Most of the gains were intact from the overnight session, but after the trade deficit data came out weaker than expected, several major firms revised GDP forecasts lower.  This, in turn, put more pressure on stocks, and helped bonds improve even more.


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.0
102-26 : +0-05
Treasuries
10 YR
1.7200 : -0.0590
Pricing as of 4/5/16 5:27PMEST

Today's Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
2:26PM  :  Oil/Bonds Bounce, Plus Video Primer on Today's Charts
12:10PM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Heads-Up: Shifting in an Unfriendly Direction
10:31AM  :  Almost Imperceptible Pressure After ISM Data

MBS Live Chat Highlights
A recap of featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Matthew Graham  :  "Dez, re: oil, WTC (west Texas/Cushing) trading closed right around the time of the spike. It's also the daily settlement time for Crude futures (although those keep trading electronically). That usually means it was an 'end-of-day tradeflows' issue, much like we can see spikes in Treasuries at the 3pm close. In other words, no specific cause other than traders tidying up their positions/holdings for the day."
Ted Rood  :  "almost as if MBS were at best levels of the year!"
Nathan Miller  :  "seeing some excellent pricing today, damn!"
Dez Loessberg  :  "anyone see what is happening with oil right now? Just shot up..."
Brent Borcherding  :  "The earliest lower oil prices was likely to show up in the GDP data would be this quarter. I believe you're going to see expanding GDP."
John Tassios  :  "Good Stuff VB. Translation: Continued GDP Malaise"