• MBS and Treasuries both end nearly unchanged after some intraday volatility
• 10's traded a range of 1.762 to 1.814.  Fannie 3.0s 102-17 to 102-24
• NFP 215k vs 205k.  ISM data was the bigger problem, coming in hot (relatively)
• Bonds shook off ISM data despite stock surge
• Hurray bonds! 

The world may never know how close bond markets came to a major rally today.  For traders, the first day of the month is like a candy store for kids with fresh allowances lining their pockets.  It almost never happens that the first day of the month falls on NFP day.  NFP almost always comes after, thus keeping some of the potential volatility of the 1st day of the month under wraps.

This time around, not only did we have NFP, but NFP also did very little to push markets in either direction.  Traders figured that ISM Manufacturing would be somewhere close to consensus, and were thus free to start spending their candy money.  Up until ISM, bonds were winning and stocks were losing.

With equities markets still very much at risk of continuing a massive reversal toward bear market territory--like they have every 7 years like clockwork--it wouldn't have taken much more of a push for stock selling to go exponential.  Had that happened, bonds would have been happy to reap some of the benefits.  

Instead, ISM came in hot, with a particularly big beat in New Orders and Prices Paid.  It put an end to the bond buying and stock selling and ultimately helped stocks pick a direction for the day.  It's not for nothing that bonds continued to hold their ground even as stocks soared.  It says a lot about the fact that 10yr yields didn't move down under 1.80 on a lark.  This trend is still a trend until it's not a trend anymore (white lines).