• SIFMA recommended early close for markets (2pm ET) on Thu and full close on Friday 
  • Friday is NOT a bank holiday
  • Bond markets in equivocal territory in terms of momentum
  • Data limited, but Durable Goods on Thu and GDP on Fri

This week brings the Good Friday holiday, resulting in a full market closure on Friday and an early close on Thursday, as recommended by SIFMA.  That means Friday WILL be a rescission day, but bond markets won't be moving.  As such, there is no scheduled commentary for Friday.

There will be data though.  In fact, the 2 biggest reports of the week will be out on the holiday-affected days.  Thursday's data is arguably bigger as Durable goods is a more timely release.  It covers the month of February, whereas the Final GDP numbers on Friday are merely a revision to data from Q4-2015.  

In terms of momentum, bond markets begin the week in equivocal territory.  Had we woken up to a surge lower in yields, we could BEGIN to conclude that a new, positive trend was forming.  As it stands, the moderate weakness does more to suggest a "sideways consolidation" as opposed to any new positive/negative momentum.  Until technicals start sending clear signals, we can continue to watch nearby pivot points for short-term momentum indications.  

The nearest supportive ceiling in 10yr yields is 1.92 and the rally target (a floor we'd love to break) is 1.84.  As always, keep in mind that "breaking" a pivot point is slightly subjective.  There needs to be a certain amount of follow-through, either in terms of distance or time.  In other words, yields would have to break far enough past a pivot and hold that break for a long enough time to consider it successfully broken.

2016-3-21 Treasuries

MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
FNMA 3.0
101-30 : -0-04
10 YR
1.8960 : +0.0250
Pricing as of 3/21/16 8:36AMEST

Tomorrow's Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Forecast Prior
Monday, Mar 21
10:00 Existing home sales (ml)* Feb 5.34 5.47
Tuesday, Mar 22
9:00 Monthly Home Price mm (%) Jan 0.4
Wednesday, Mar 23
7:00 Mortgage Market Index w/e 481.0
10:00 New home sales-units mm (ml)* Feb 0.510 0.494
Thursday, Mar 24
8:30 Durable goods (%)* Feb -2.8 4.7
8:30 Initial Jobless Claims (k)* w/e 265
Friday, Mar 25
0:00 Good Friday *
8:30 GDP Final (%) Q4 1.0 1.0