• Calm Monday, for the most part
  • Bonds probably took cues from oil prices
  • Bonds bounced when oil bounced (around noon)
  • Net effect was modest gains with Fannie 3.0s up 5 ticks at 101-17

In typical Monday fashion, bond markets didn't offer too much excitement.  Data was absent.  Volumes were light, and volatility was mild.  Even then, if anything constituted a 'volatile' surprise today, it was that yields had fallen as much as they had by noon.  

Before that, the overnight session began completely uneventfully, with 10yr yields chopping sideways around the same range seen at the end of Friday.  The only real external guidance came in the form of falling oil prices.  Oil's inspiration ostensibly came from headlines regarding Iranian output increases and OPEC surplus forecasting.  Indeed, these stories seem well-enough connected to oil price declines to conclude they were meaningful, even if only as a cue.

Less clear is whether bond markets were taking their cues from falling oil prices.  While we can't observe the sort of unequivocal cause and effect we might like, it is true that yields and oil prices were generally moving higher and lower at the same times for most of the day.  

Keep in mind that the week gets serious tonight with the Bank of Japan announcement and Retail Sales data in the morning.  

MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
FNMA 3.0
101-17 : +0-03
10 YR
1.9610 : -0.0160
Pricing as of 3/14/16 5:14PMEST

Today's Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
3:31PM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Reprice Considerations as MBS Give Up Some Gains
10:19AM  :  Bonds Fighting Back Amid Sideways Stocks, Leaking Oil

MBS Live Chat Highlights
A recap of featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Jeff Anderson  :  "Yeah, that one."
Jeff Anderson  :  "MG had that in one of his updates last week."
Jeff Anderson  :  "SK's point goes back to the chart of the S&P and it's parabolic movement."
Hugh W. Page  :  "Stocks are at a key level here. If they can break through this level higher and sustain it for more than a few days I think rates could be heading northward. Of course, the opposite could be true...."
Sung Kim  :  "you have your 15 day pricing now, risk is leaning the other way per charts, and stuff, oil down 4% and stocks flat is not a good sign"
Sung Kim  :  "if any one of us were any good at predicting rates (greater than 49.99%) we wouldnt be in here chatting, despite the broken clock syndrome we all have"
Wendy Smith  :  "I've got a few bigger purchase loans that need to be locked with week. Feeling a little pressure..."