• ECB unveils bigger-than-expected package of rate cuts and QE purchases
  • Then Draghi says the magic words (in a nutshell: no more rate cuts)
  • Stocks and bonds both pitch a fit
  • Stay classy, financial markets

For a day with a ton of volatility and a seemingly large supply of moving parts, this one is pretty easy to boil down.  Everything was going according to the ECB's plan in the morning (that's the European Central Bank, by the way, and Draghi is the guy in charge): a larger-than-expected campaign of policy accommodation was just announced, stocks were rallying, bond markets were overcoming their initial jitters, and the Euro was going right where the ECB wanted it: down, down down.

Then Draghi said something very logical in a stupidly candid way during the press conference that began at 8:30am.  Here was the newswire that did the damage:

RTRS - DRAGHI SAYS DON'T ANTICIPATE THAT IT WILL BE NECESSARY TO CUT RATES FURTHER

That was it.  Game over for all asset classes--at least for today.  Stocks turned tail and proceeded resolutely toward negative territory.  The Euro leapt in a major way--from multi-week lows to multi-week highs in a single bound.  European bond markets tanked and US bond markets tanked only slightly less.  Could this merely have been a short-term tantrum to what, in retrospect, won't look like such a big deal?  Sure, but it unfortunately became today's dominant theme.  MBS outperformed handily, as they tend to do when Treasuries are tanking for European reasons.  Fannie 3.0s only lost an eighth of a point on the day.


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.0
101-25 : -0-01
Treasuries
10 YR
1.9360 : +0.0440
Pricing as of 3/10/16 5:25PMEST

Today's Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
11:01AM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Sell-Off Quickly Getting Serious; Negative Reprices Likely
10:53AM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Negative Reprice Risk Increasing as MBS Hit Lows
9:41AM  :  Bonds Swing Both Ways as Draghi (Mostly) Delivers; Letter Grades on Policy Announcements
9:05AM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Reprice Risk for Earliest Lenders

MBS Live Chat Highlights
A recap of featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Adam Quinones  :  "honestly isnt it more fun to mess with everyone and say "the roll is going to destroy your pricing tomorrow. lock everything""
Ted Rood  :  "hysteria, panic, and rampant dysfunction?"
Matthew Graham  :  "The most notable effect is confusion among originators who watch MBS prices."
Matthew Graham  :  "Nothing apart from trivia"
Edgar Young  :  "Does the fact that tomorrow is a Roll Date mean anything"
Matthew Graham  :  "tell us these results yesterday and it's an F-"
Matthew Graham  :  "yes, but again, only because of the sell-off"
Victor Burek  :  "best of the week?"
Matthew Graham  :  "in the context of the sell-off, of course"
Matthew Graham  :  "B+"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - U.S. 29-YEAR 11-MONTH BOND BID-TO-COVER RATIO 2.33, NON-COMP BIDS $3.79 MLN"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - U.S. SELLS $12 BLN 29-YEAR 11-MONTH BONDS AT HIGH YIELD 2.720 PCT, AWARDS 1.47 PCT OF BIDS AT HIGH"
Matthew Graham  :  "30yr Auction expectation is currently 2.730, with an average bid-to-cover around 2.40 and indirect bids near 60%. 30's tend to come in above the expected yield recently. (more info on the jargon Treasury Auction Jargon, Definition, and Significance ) results in moments"
Christopher Stevens  :  "I do think the FOMC press conf next week is very important due to the fact there is not another one scheduled until June and there is no May meeting."
Dez Loessberg  :  "Let's stay positive...at least we dont have to worry about locked pipelines going anywhere...just sucks for my floaters and fence sitters"
Brent Borcherding  :  "It's the end of low rates forever."