This week has the potential to begin fairly slowly. Market participation will undoubtedly be affected on some level by the massive snow storm that hit the east coast over the weekend. The transportation ban has been lifted in NY, but several commuter rail lines won't be open on time to get market participants to the office. Sure, there are other ways to get in the office, but ask yourself if you would go to greater lengths to get into the office the day after the 2nd biggest snowstorm in the history of your city. Some will, some won't.
Normally, the decreased level of participation would mean something for volatility and could perhaps even affect the day's trading momentum for bond markets. Fortunately, the game-plan for 2016 makes it simple for bonds to go where they're going to go regardless of participation issues.
So where are they going to go?
The most likely answer--by far--is: "in the same direction as stocks." With that in mind, we're coming off the best 2 days of the year for stocks and the worst 2 for bond markets. Today is a tipping point for technical momentum. In other words, if bonds lose ground again today, it would all but confirm that we'll see more weakness before strength.
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