• Low volume sets in for holidays
  • Asian markets shed risk on China/Japan headlines
  • Another new multi-year low for oil
  • stocks slide
  • all of the above + year-end balance sheet considerations helping bonds

Today's volumes were the lowest of the month, which is no surprise given the unofficial inception of the holiday week.  Very little happened to materially impact bond market trading, though there were some potential contenders earlier on.

At the start of the overnight session, there was some buzz about China's Beige Book.  The first part of the buzz was half-joking surprise about the fact that there even is a Beige Book for China.  The second part had to do with how downbeat it was.  Ignore the last 3 sentences if you like and simply read this: a broad overview report of China's economy is gloomy.  This was bad for stocks and good for bonds.

In separate news, the Bank of Japan adjusted its bond buying program to allow for 12 year maturities instead of the previous 10 year.  As any bond trader will attest, a 20% increase in duration is more significant that the headline might seem.  This can be thought of as a mid-recovery Federal Reserve adding accommodation to its monetary policy.  Long story short, Japan is still struggling.

With China and Japan struggling, flat economic data in Europe, flat economic data at home, successive long term lows in oil, and the need to make balance sheets look good for year-end, the safer trade for domestic stock markets has been to head back toward lower prices.  Bonds have benefited, although they ran out of steam in the afternoon.  10yr yields ended the day down 2bps at 2.204 and Fannie 3.5s were up an eighth of a point at 103-08.


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.0
100-05 : +0-05
FNMA 3.5
103-08 : +0-04
FNMA 4.0
105-25 : +0-03
Treasuries
2 YR
0.9520 : -0.0360
10 YR
2.2040 : -0.0210
30 YR
2.9200 : -0.0090
Pricing as of 12/18/15 5:39PMEST

Today's Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
9:42AM  :  Mostly Holding Overnight Gains Amid Inconsequential Seasonal Conditions

MBS Live Chat Highlights
A recap of featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Matthew Graham  :  "sounds good to me. The holiday can work both ways though--limiting both positive and negative risk."
Wendy Smith  :  "I'm inclined to lock on a day like today--after some of the pricing improvements have been passed on and we have a major holiday next week (and the week after). Anyone have arguments to the contrary?"
Christopher Stevens  :  "not sure about sub 2 but I can see us testing 2 like we did at the end of October"
Brent Borcherding  :  "Sub 2 on the 10 yr by Spring?"
Matthew Graham  :  "I think, in general, we have been and will continue to be able to expect flattening (i.e. shorter term yields like 2yr Treasuries moving closer to longer term yields like 10yr Treasuries) in a world where the Fed is hiking the shortest-term rates at the same time that the longer term economic outlook is uncertain. Throw inflation considerations into the mix if you like."
Ray J  :  "Curve Flattening?"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - FED'S LACKER SAYS DIVERGENCE OF CENTRAL BANK POLICIES NOT NECESSARILY A MATTER OF CONCERN"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - FED'S LACKER SAYS FED RATE HIKE SHOWS HOW MUCH U.S. ECONOMY HAS IMPROVED"