Bond markets began the overnight session with a small corrective move back toward lower yields but flat-lined at 2.26 (10yr yields).  Selling pressure returned as German Bunds quickly moved into negative territory after a failed 30yr auction (not enough bids to cover the auctioned amount).  In that light, Treasuries' ability to hold firm at yesterday's ceiling was fairly reassuring.

By the start of the domestic session, Treasuries were almost perfectly in line with yesterday's latest levels, allowing MBS to open in similar territory.  From that point on, nothing much changed for the day.  There was a slight drift into weaker territory late in the afternoon, but it never became threatening apart from setting a slightly higher closing yield for 10s.  For their part, MBS actually improved a few ticks.

Data was passed over without more than a quick glance or two.  CPI came in slightly weaker than expected, and while a good chunk of volume followed the data, the verdict was that it didn't bring any clarity to tomorrow's Fed Announcement. 

As a reminder, the actual Announcement will be at 2pm, along with the forecasts.  Yellen speaks at 2:30pm, first with prepared remarks and then in Q&A.  The "hike or no hike" question will be answered in the 2pm Announcement.


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.0
100-01 : +0-04
FNMA 3.5
103-09 : +0-03
FNMA 4.0
105-30 : +0-01
Treasuries
2 YR
0.8110 : +0.0000
10 YR
2.2960 : +0.0040
30 YR
3.0850 : +0.0140
Pricing as of 9/16/15 5:19PMEST

Today's Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
2:56PM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Getting Shifty Into Treasury Close; Some Reprice Risk
10:11AM  :  Holding Ground Despite Weaker Cues From Europe

MBS Live Chat Highlights
A recap of featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Victor Burek  :  "big risk, big reward"
Alan Craft  :  "But could pay dividends"
Victor Burek  :  "very risky to float"
Jon Bodan  :  "getting ready to lock up myself. "
Matt Hodges  :  "100% locked"
Nathan Miller  :  "locked up"
Ben Biscoe  :  "locked or locking today"
Ted Rood  :  "locked, JB"
Jon Bodan  :  "anyone floating into Fed, or all locked down tight?"
Caroline Roy  :  "in terms of a playbook for tomorrow it is very muddy. I think it will depend on the tone of the statement and the press conference and how they talk about the international risks vis a vis their growth forecast for the US -- if they say something like downside risks have increased then you buy tsys ... however, if the forecast is pretty unch'd and they point us toward Dec then I think you could see some FI weakness because of the persistent central bank selling and now some of the algorithmic guys too are hitting stops because of the charts (that was yesterdays' big flow). so if she tries to sound upbeat and we're on track for Dec, then I think rates sell off -- its probably a bear flattener but the technicals in the back end are worse than the front end so it might be a bear steepener. most people are also expecting them to take down long run neutral rates and NAIRU but the market is already ahead of them in pricing that by many many months now. "
Tom Bartlett  :  "all I know it is better to lock and be wrong then to float and be wrong.."