There are no 2 ways about it: NFP was a non-event.  Not only did it produce far less of a reaction when compared to other instances of NFP Fridays, it didn't even come close to several recent NON-NFP days.  It was a total and complete waste of a 3-day weekend-adjoining day!

When big potential market movers whiff this badly, there are two ways to look at it.  Either NFP simply never mattered as much as we thought it did, or it threaded some sort of needle by being just bullish enough for the bulls and just bearish enough for the bears.  Here's how you could make a case for the latter:

  • The headline was the obvious 'miss.'  173k vs 220k forecast.  That would normally be good for a bigger rally in bond markets, but we actually lost ground at first.  
  • The lost ground wasn't a factor of the headline.  In fact, the headline was our salvation, and indeed a positive influence that would have helped bonds rally even more if it wasn't offset by the opposing team.
  • The opposing team consists of revisions to the previous 2 reports, stronger wages, an organic drop in unemployment, and a comment from the Labor Department about this month of data typically being revised higher.  With all this in mind, markets seemed to be asking themselves the question: "so is this good enough to prompt a September rate hike?"
  • The negative headline combined with the positive anecdotes could easily have left an equilibrium that prevented a big move in either direction.

The argument against the needle-threading deserves attention too.  In other words, maybe no one would have cared too much one way or the other, except perhaps in cases of an extremely large deviation from the forecast.  In this version of reality, it can be argued that bond markets have done most of what they needed to do in order to price-in a Fed hike, thus putting the burden of proof on weaker economic data to change the outlook.  This data was weaker at the headline level, but due to the counterpoints discussed above, not really weak enough to drastically change anyone's thinking.

Either way, we made it through NFP Friday with modest gains in MBS and longer-dated Treasuries.  Lenders also let their guard down a bit and passed some of the traditional pre-NFP cushion back to originators (i.e. rate sheets were slightly stronger than MBS gains would have suggested).  A meaningful amount of that phenomenon is also due to the fact that yesterday ended with a quick run to the day's best levels.  This set today's day-over-day baseline higher than the last rate sheets would suggest, so there was already some built-in love to be shared.  (In other words, the day's last rate sheets yesterday were a product of a Fannie 3.5 coupon that flat-lined at 103-28.  In the last hour of the day, prices rose to 103-31, but few lenders repriced.  Thus, today's 'change' is from that 103-31 level despite rate sheets based on prices several ticks lower.)


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.0
100-28 : +0-02
FNMA 3.5
103-32 : +0-02
FNMA 4.0
106-15 : -0-01
Treasuries
2 YR
0.7090 : +0.0130
10 YR
2.1310 : -0.0320
30 YR
2.8920 : -0.0450
Pricing as of 9/4/15 6:15PMEST

Today's Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
9:41AM  :  ALERT ISSUED: A bit More Weakness Now; Slight Risk For Overly Aggressive Lenders
9:08AM  :  Indecisive Reaction to Weaker NFP Numbers

MBS Live Chat Highlights
A recap of featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Marc Perez  :  "Correct Sung...my point exactly about those reprices being intraday margin moves and not indicative to the MBS TBA market."
Sung Kim  :  "? we are only up 2 ticks from 9:15"
Matthew Graham  :  "the risk is always that things don't improve on Tuesday, regardless of how much lenders are 'holding back' today. "
Victor Burek  :  "as a general rule, i never lock on a Friday ahead of a 3 day weekend"
Marc Perez  :  "Heading into any three day weekend it’s not unusual to see mortgages widen a bit before the weekend/profit taking & position squaring. As a Risk Manager, I never condone floating but as a Production Guy I will say that lenders tend to widen out spreads and add a little margin ahead of any three day weekend (i.e. markets can move more over a 3-day weekend; the greater the volatility potential the greater the hedge cost). "