This was an archived piece that I had published to the wrong section that I don't think ever made it on the blog. It may be useful as a knowledge base. Let me know if you think it needs more:
Speeds and Spreads....
Though it is very important to understand that MBS and
treasuries are very different, there are important ways to analyze
them together. To put it simply, Treasuries are the risk free benchmark against which numerous other fixed-income investments are compared.
It's as simple as that. For the most part, treasuries are considered
to be utterly risk free,
whereas MBS, like other fixed-income investments have "risk." Of the
greatest importance to MBS investors is NOT "credit risk," which is the
risk they will not be paid back, but rather it is "call risk." In
other words, there is a
risk that the loans underlying MBS pools can be "called" when the
homeowner sells, refinances, or undergoes another form of less savory
disposition. In all cases, the investor's standpoint is the same
(that's not to say that Fannie, Freddie, the servicer, and the MI
company won't take a hit, but the investor is guaranteed "timely
payment of principle and interest").
Because MBS have risk and treasuries don't, that which is risk free
can be used as a baseline to determine just how risky anything else
is. The "Risk Premium," then, is simply the difference in yield
between the risk-free and the non-risk-free. This is the VERY central
concept of MBS analysis known as "spread." In fact, MBS analysts are
more concerned with the difference in yield between MBS and treasuries
than they are with the actual yields themselves. Since there are many
types of treasuries and many types of MBS, how then do we go about
comparing the two in the most pertinent manner?
Say we want to start our analysis with MBS versus a 10 year
treasury. In order to get a relevant basis for comparison from the
MBS side, we have
to find an MBS coupon that "lasts about as long" as 10 years. Remember
that there is no set time limit on MBS other than the mortgage note.
If people want to keep them all 30 years, they can. But of course,
they don't. The question of "prepayment speed" is central to the
concept of MBS analysis. This is commonly referred to as "speeds." It
encompasses refinances, sales, foreclosures, etc... For mortgage
brokers in particular, it's important not to confuse anything about a
"prepayment penalty" with "prepayment speeds" (though penalties are
gradually becoming a thing of the past it seems). So if you hear us
discuss "prepays," or "speeds" or CPR (constand prepayment rate), or
"weighted avergage life," or "embedded call option" (since the borrower
can 'call' the note by paying it off), we are concerned with how long
the average borrower in a mortgage that underlies an MBS coupon will
keep paying their mortgage. One thing that might surprise some of you
is that in the instance of foreclosure etc..., the secondary market
investor is much less worried that the loan is defaulting because they
are guaranteed "timely payment of principle and interest" and much more
worried that the speeds they were anticipating are changing, so they
might have cash that was locked in earning 7% all of the sudden in a
market that's only paying 4.5%. Lots of money gets lost that way.
Lots of banks go out of business. And we see exactly what we've seen,
which is mortgage spreads blowing out far past all time wides to
account for the uncertainty in prepayment speeds. To conclude, we used
a baseline of 10 year treasuries agains the 4.5% coupon because the
prepayment speed on a 4.5 is roughly 10 years. So to an investor
choosing risk versus no risk, everything else would be apples to
apples. When the yields (rates) on mortgages go down faster than
treasury yields, that's what we refer to as "tightening" (because the
yield curves are getting tighter to each other).