We've been talking about the lack of passion, news, and trading activity over the past few days, but as of this morning, we'd only really seen rates moving higher inside a narrow range.  Now, the shoe is on the other foot.  Rates moved quickly lower and MBS have rallied nicely since just after 9am.  The only problem?  Everything continues to occur in the micro-range (denoted by 2.34-2.40 in 10yr yields).

While that's not necessarily a problem in the conventional sense of the word, it doesn't allow us to draw any conclusions about momentum.  In other words, today might look pretty decent on a 2-day chart, but over the longer term, the last 2 days look like this:

2015-7-21 10yr

In terms of specifics, market motivations are hard to pin down.  First off, I'm not sure it really matters when we're in such a narrow range.  But beyond that, if I had to pick, I'd note the stark absence of US Dollar-based corporate debt issuance today compared to yesterday.  It's really been the only game in town--having hurt us yesterday and now playing the opposite role today.  At this very moment, 10yr yields are right on the lower bound of the micro-range.

MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
FNMA 3.0
99-22 : +0-08
FNMA 3.5
103-03 : +0-06
FNMA 4.0
105-30 : +0-05
2 YR
0.6820 : -0.0280
10 YR
2.3450 : -0.0350
30 YR
3.0870 : -0.0190
Pricing as of 7/21/15 12:41PMEST

Morning Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
10:24AM  :  Bonds Bouncing Back into NYSE Hours

Live Chat Featured Comments
A recap of featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Matthew Graham  :  "Stocks down, bonds up, is an illusion that only occasionally plays out over the short term. When the long term chart looks like this, you have to expect the 'stock lever' to be broken most of the time. View Image"
William Hansen  :  "Remember when the Dow futures would be down 100+ and we would be in the green. "
Victor Burek  :  "me neither, but Fed does"
Sung Kim  :  "i don't want to find out"
Victor Burek  :  "we will find out"
Sung Kim  :  "doubt US econ can withstand more than .50"
Victor Burek  :  "the pace of hikes is the question"
Sung Kim  :  "yeah, but we don't know if it is reaffirming or lift off"
Victor Burek  :  "don't think we really need hints...fed has flat out said, they intend to raise this year"
Hugh W. Page  :  "One more hint that FF may be going up soon. http://mndne.ws/1RMt0sq"
Christopher Stevens  :  "BB&T and PennyMac allow closing with employment contract only and no pay statements necessary. Need to start work within 60 days of closing. There are additional reserve requirements. "
Jason Harris  :  "Pretty sure Chase will make them start work at least. Fannie says close whenever but need pay stub prior to delivery. FHA allows you to close up to 60 days early and Freddie allows as a lender variance."
Gilbert Denizard  :  "i have doctors who have signed employment contracts"