When is the be-all end-all Greek bailout negotiation weekend not the be-all end-all Greek bailout negotiation?  When it ends with both sides going back to vote on agreements that are, by no means guaranteed to pass.

This weekend was supposed to have been "the big one" for Greece's Eurozone membership.  Greece went to the table with the blessing of its people to bargain for a better bailout.  They're returning from that table with something far worse than they expected.  Ironically (or tragically), the new terms are worse than those the Greek people voted against in last weekend's referendum. 

The more we talk about it from here, the more complicated it will get, and that complexity is a big reason for the indecisive response in bond markets.  The first move was clearly negative for bonds as the superficial headlines simply suggested a new bailout deal was reached.  But ever since the initial pop into weaker territory, bonds have been rallying.

In fact, German Bunds, which tend to fall in yield with bad news for Greece, made it all the way back into positive territory this morning.  The only reason US Treasuries haven't followed is that a big corporate deal ($15 bln) was announced this morning.  Still, US bond markets are still much better off than they were.  Additionally, the fact that opening levels were so poor means that lenders have been repricing positively.


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.0
98-30 : -0-03
FNMA 3.5
102-13 : -0-02
FNMA 4.0
105-14 : -0-01
Treasuries
2 YR
0.6730 : +0.0280
10 YR
2.4260 : +0.0251
30 YR
3.2010 : +0.0094
Pricing as of 7/13/15 1:57PMEST

Morning Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
10:03AM  :  Running Out of Briefcases to Open, Greece Considers Taking the Deal

Live Chat Featured Comments
A recap of featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Victor Burek  :  "this weekends agreement wasn't for more bailout money...it was conditions Greece must pass, once passed, then they talk about more money"
Matthew Graham  :  "Apart from a noticeable shift for the worse in domestic econ data, nothing jumps to mind. European QE and general economic uncertainty (in the EU) have been two of the key reasons rates in the US had been as low as they have been. The move higher beginning in late April has mostly been about the evolution of that uncertainty (i.e. maybe Europe is turning a corner). Greece was/is a wrench in the works of that corner-turning process. "
Dominick Cordone  :  "Forgive my naiveté....since we have to assume a Greece deal will be reached in some shape or form, and hopefully the negativity has already been baked in to some extent, do we have anything else to look for besides an alien attack to get back to a lower range? "
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- EUROGROUP'S DIJSSELBLOEM: WE WILL LOOK AT POSSIBILITIES OF BRIDGE FINANCING FOR GREECE AT EUROGROUP ON MONDAY"
John Tassios  :  "Tsipras will not make it too much longer as PM. The Greek people will revolt against this agreement. It's not worth being in the Euro in my opinion, for Greece. I would exit and reach a deal with IMF for financing a new currency, Drachma, and try to peg it to the Euro to try to stabalize it. Great Britain, Sweden, Norway, Switzerland and others all trade with EU and are not in the Euro and have done just fine without it. I've said it before on this site, the Euro is good for Elites and government officials but the avg citizen has 0 benefit to be in the Euro."