Since at least 2010, European and US markets/economies have been trading blows in the fight to control market momentum.  Actually, the real fight isn't so much between Europe and the US, but rather in our own minds as we decide what is relevant and what is a distraction when it comes to events that correlate to market movements. 

This has been a hard fight for many market watchers (and market participants) in the US.  Xenophobia aside, the US is the center of the financial world and it's been hard for some people to come to terms with the fact that Europe had been in the drivers' seat, when applicable.  To be sure, momentum inspired by Europe has received far less than its fair share of proper attribution over time.  It's been good for domestic stakeholders to witness just how true that has been recently, but there can certainly be too much of a good thing.

Case in point: Greece.

At one point, Greece really was moving markets commensurate with the amount of headline coverage it receives today.  It's important to understand that was was at a time where the entire global economic recovery was still in uncertain territory.  ECB QE wasn't even a twinkle in Draghi's eye and the Fed was still expanding policy accommodation.  With all the political roadblocks for Europe to embark on similarly accommodative policies, there was real concern that the European financial system could seize up if one of its member states defaulted.  

Greece was (and still is) like a very small computer in a very large network.  Back then, experts worried that a virus in the Greek computer could spread to the rest of the network.  These days, experts don't see nearly as much risk, though there remains an element of unknown. 

More so than the average recent week, this one will be a fertile environment for Greek headlines.  As I alluded to earlier, those headlines haven't been backed up by financial market movement.  On many of the days where the Greek situation seems dire based on headlines, risk metrics are actually improving for Greece.  As soon as that changes, it will be worth watching more closely. 

Whether or not that actually changes this week remains to be seen.  The slate of domestic economic data is moderate to strong.  Highlights include Existing and New Home Sales data, Durable Goods, and Incomes/Outlays.  On Wednesday, GDP is more interesting than normal.  It's the 3rd and final release.  Typically, that makes it LESS interesting because the data is so old at that point that markets have moved on to watching other things.  In this case, there's bigger revision potential, which could contribute to broad reassessments about the baseline level of domestic economic health.

MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
FNMA 3.0
100-03 : +0-00
FNMA 3.5
103-15 : +0-00
FNMA 4.0
106-07 : +0-00
2 YR
0.6450 : +0.0240
10 YR
2.3240 : +0.0628
30 YR
3.1110 : +0.0623
Pricing as of 6/22/15 7:30AMEST

Tomorrow's Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Forecast Prior
Monday, Jun 22
10:00 Existing home sales (ml)* May 5.26 5.04
Tuesday, Jun 23
8:30 Durable goods (%)* May -0.5 -1.0
9:00 Monthly Home Price mm (%) Apr 0.3
10:00 New home sales-units mm (ml)* May 0.525 0.517
13:00 2-Yr Note Auction (bl)* 26
Wednesday, Jun 24
7:00 Mortgage Market Index w/e 378.5
8:30 GDP Final (%) Q1 -0.2 -0.7
13:00 5-Yr Note Auction (bl)* 35
Thursday, Jun 25
8:30 Consumption, adjusted mm (%)* May 0.7 0.0
8:30 Personal income mm (%) May 0.5 0.4
8:30 Core PCE price index mm (%)* May 0.1 0.1
8:30 Initial Jobless Claims (k)* w/e 267
13:00 7-Yr Note Auction (bl)* 29
Friday, Jun 26
10:00 U Mich Sentiment Final (ip) Jun 94.6 94.6