Markets were abuzz--relatively speaking--with overnight news that the latest hopes for a Greek debt deal were dashed over the weekend.  This was theoretically the reason behind the big rally in sovereign debt.  In truth, it DID have an impact in bond markets, but the impact is not nearly as big as it's made out to be. 

To hear some media outlets say it, Greece is flat-out causing directional movement in broader bond markets.  No...

Broader bond markets are moving where they want to move, and Greece provides only fine-tuning adjustments.  The correlation is so poor, overall, that it's completely lost in the bigger picture. The white ovals in the chart below show the trading activity that took place today.  

2015-6-15 greece

Granted, if we zoom the chart in to very specific time frames, we can observe the correlation implied by media headlines, but it's actually much easier to find examples where that correlation breaks down completely.  We're at the point now where headlines come out regarding a surprise Greek debt deal and markets barely bat an eyelash. 

Such was the case this afternoon with one particular headline:

BN-EURO-ZONE COUNTRIES REACH GREECE EMERGENCY PLAN: SUEDDEUTSCHE

shortly thereafter:

RTRS- GREEK GOVT OFFICIAL DENIES GERMAN NEWSPAPER REPORT ON PLAN FOR
GREECE TO IMPOSE CAPITAL CONTROLS THIS WEEKEND IF TALKS FAIL

What's the point of caring too much if this is the rule as opposed to the exception? 

In real news, bond markets continue trading well within the recent range as the FOMC approaches.  Compared to yesterday, we ended in positive territory, but the gains were in by early morning and the rest of the day was spent selling off.


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.0
99-12 : +0-05
FNMA 3.5
102-26 : +0-04
FNMA 4.0
105-23 : +0-03
Treasuries
2 YR
0.7060 : -0.0200
10 YR
2.3590 : -0.0310
30 YR
3.0880 : -0.0142
Pricing as of 6/15/15 6:20PMEST

Today's Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
1:30PM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Negative Reprice Risk Increasing Again
11:17AM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Negative Reprices Increasingly Possible
10:54AM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Negative Reprice Risk Considerations
9:52AM  :  Bonds Stronger Overnight and Boosted by Data

MBS Live Chat Highlights
A recap of featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- GREEK GOVT OFFICIAL DENIES GERMAN NEWSPAPER REPORT ON PLAN FOR GREECE TO IMPOSE CAPITAL CONTROLS THIS WEEKEND IF TALKS FAIL"
Ted Rood  :  "no, every 30-45 minutes, MB2"
Michael Baker  :  "Doesn't this Greece/Europe drama play out the same every 30-45 days?"
Matthew Graham  :  "BN-EURO-ZONE COUNTRIES REACH GREECE EMERGENCY PLAN: SUEDDEUTSCHE"
Ali Faraj  :  "Same here no rate sheet yet"
Ted Rood  :  "on a related note, our rates aren't out yet."
Victor Burek  :  "bund has erased all today's gains and is now higher on the day at .84"