This isn't the most enjoyable way to begin the new week, but it was one of the options suggested by recent trends.  Specifically, this option was the one where last Thursday and Friday marked a mere correction in a more determined trend toward higher rates (as opposed to the first two days of a friendly bounce toward lower rates).

US traders were clearly lined up to sell bonds at the domestic open and were already in weaker territory from overnight trading.  The determination behind the selling is quite high considering the lack of overt causes.  Indeed, if there were no causes, the losses would be exceptionally troubling.

But there are causes.  They're just not as satisfying as we'd like them to be in terms of causality.  Additionally, they are the same two causes that have  been behind most of the recent weakness: Europe and corporate debt issuance.

The European component has been and continues to be the biggest.  In terms of specific headlines, the fact that Greece announced a €750 million payment to the IMF isn't helping, but even without that, markets are in the process of pricing in a long term bounce in Europe.  Whether that's premature or not remains to be seen, but it hurts for now.

All ancillary factors are merely exacerbating that central source of pain.  The most consistent runner-up has been corporate debt issuance.  This not only creates supply pressure in the bond market, but also can create direct selling of Treasuries as part of the issuing firms' rate-lock process.

The bottom line is that the recent sell-off in bond markets is ongoing.  Thursday and Friday marked a brief correction and we're right back to tracking the negative trend, still very much waiting for some more legitimate evidence that it might be shifting.


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.0
100-32 : -0-15
FNMA 3.5
104-09 : -0-11
FNMA 4.0
106-20 : -0-06
Treasuries
2 YR
0.6040 : +0.0320
10 YR
2.2290 : +0.0866
30 YR
2.9820 : +0.0863
Pricing as of 5/11/15 1:38PMEST

Morning Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
12:21PM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Widespread Negative Reprices Now Likely
11:04AM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Negative Reprice Risk Increasing
10:47AM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Reprice Risk on the Horizon for Some Lenders
9:39AM  :  Bond Markets Fighting to Stay Under 2.20

Live Chat Featured Comments
A recap of featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- WILLIAMS: FED SHOULD NOT MAKE DECISION ON RATE HIKE BEFORE SEEING THE ECONOMIC DATA"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- WILLIAMS: PERSONAL PREFERENCE IS THAT FED DOES NOT TELEGRAPH TIMING OF RATE HIKE BEFORE IT HAPPENS"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- WILLIAMS: EVERY FOMC MEETING IS ON THE TABLE FOR A RATE HIKE"
Christopher Stevens  :  "So nothing new and as usual main stream media telling people what you've been telling us for a while. "
Matthew Graham  :  "more accurately, the Fed's buying masked an underlying lack of liquidity. The end of the Fed's buying simply revealed it"
Matthew Graham  :  "Not much to think about. Liquidity has been an issue ever since the Fed stopped buying and volatility has certainly been higher"
Christopher Stevens  :  "MG- I read a lot about the lack of liquidity in the 10yr and big banks no longer a big buyer. Most said that this lack of liquidity will play out the remainder of the year and volatility will remain high in the 10yr. What do you think about that. "
Christopher Stevens  :  "2.15 has been my number to watch and when we hit 2.10 Friday and reversed course finishing very near 2.15 that was enough to make me nervous heading in to the weekend. This morning I continue to be worried. "