Ever have one of those days where it seems that the odds are hopelessly stacked against you?  That's the sort of week and a half that bond markets have been having.  If it's not European bond markets pushing Treasuries unavoidably higher, it's reasonably strong domestic data like this morning's ISM Services numbers.  If it's not the data, it's a massive dose of corporate debt issuance like today's $16.7 bln offering from Abbvie, which garnered more than $65bln in bids (showing how interested market participants are in getting away from Treasuries and other bonds if something else has a better yield).

All that having been said, today wasn't doomed from the start.  A pause in European bond weakness afforded some hope earlier in the session.  Treasuries actually made it into the morning hours in slightly stronger territory.  MBS were also a few ticks into the green before stocks opened.  There was a small short-covering rally after the weaker Trade Deficit data, but 10yr yields bounced firmly at the morning's previous floor of 2.117.  From there on out, bonds were weaker heading into the ISM data.  Once that came out stronger than expected, it was game over and we were quickly treated to new high yields and widespread negative reprices from mortgage lenders.


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.0
100-30 : -0-08
FNMA 3.5
104-05 : -0-05
FNMA 4.0
106-19 : -0-01
Treasuries
2 YR
0.6270 : +0.0240
10 YR
2.1871 : +0.0411
30 YR
2.9200 : +0.0420
Pricing as of 5/5/15 1:22PMEST

Morning Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
10:02AM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Selling Continues After Stronger ISM Data; More Reprice Risk
9:56AM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Negative Reprices Slightly More Possible Ahead of ISM
9:41AM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Europe's Sell-Off Pauses; US Waits for ISM; Reprice Risk Stalking Shadows

Live Chat Featured Comments
A recap of featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Matthew Graham  :  "I'm not sure how anyone could know such a thing WH. The only thing we can know is the same thing we've been saying since late April. This move should be taken seriously until it's definitively defeated. Still waiting for that, unfortunately. Until then, best to assume it will continue and only have to be wrong one time as opposed to hope it ends every day and be wrong every morning. "
William Hansen  :  "odds of closing flat to upside today?"
Bill Hills  :  "pain"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- ISM NON-MANUFACTURING EMPLOYMENT INDEX 56.7 IN APRIL VS 56.6 IN MARCH"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- ISM NON-MANUFACTURING BUSINESS ACTIVITY INDEX 61.6 IN APRIL (CONSENSUS 57.9) VS 57.5 IN MARCH"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- ISM REPORT ON U.S. NON-MANUFACTURING SECTOR SHOWS PMI 57.8 IN APRIL (CONSENSUS 56.2) VS 56.5 IN MARCH"
Matthew Graham  :  "don't we all"
Gus Floropoulos  :  "I like the concept part"
Matthew Graham  :  "important distinction there: concept vs practice"
Matthew Graham  :  "something like, "But practically, my lock/float strategy would say otherwise (and has for several weeks).""
Matthew Graham  :  "sounds like he had something important to say after that too. Something that probably should always be included in the first point."
Gus Floropoulos  :  "a real smart man said this today: " I will say that I'd need more convincing when it comes to the current sell-off marking the end of the long term bond rally""
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- US MARCH TRADE BALANCE -51.37 BLN DLRS (CONSENSUS -41.2 BLN) VS FEB BALANCE -35.89 BLN DLRS (PREV -35.44 BLN)"