What is a dip-buyer?  That's just a fancy term for an investor who has seen prices fall far enough to entice them to buy in the hopes of a bounce.  It's like catching the proverbial falling knife. Sometimes it works out.  Sometimes it doesn't.

Today it didn't.

There was longer term dip-buying taking place over the last few days with 2.15% seen as a supportive level in 10yr yields.  Those buyers were quickly forced to liquidate after this morning's thunderous 295k print on NFP.  The lack of more meaningful wage growth was completely overshadowed by the job creation.  In general, the report seemed to catch market participants off guard.  There was a lot of media hype about the weather taking a toll on today's numbers.  Obviously, it didn't.

After the first troop of dip-buyers was burned alive, more heroically (or foolishly?) stepped in at 2.18.  They even got some quick help from the traders who had bet on higher rates taking a quick opportunity to book profits (which they accomplish by buying the bonds previously sold short).  But the flames were still burning.  Markets continued to punish anyone foolish enough to buy until no more buyers remained.  At that point, it's up to seller exhaustion to stem the tide, and that looks to be taking shape around 2.25 in 10yr yields.

It's an ugly day, and not a promising development for the long-term trend.


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.0
100-19 : -0-26
FNMA 3.5
103-29 : -0-19
FNMA 4.0
106-11 : -0-11
Treasuries
2 YR
0.7190 : +0.0760
10 YR
2.2500 : +0.1330
30 YR
2.8580 : +0.1320
Pricing as of 3/6/15 12:31PMEST

Morning Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
10:16AM  :  ALERT ISSUED: At This Point, Some Lenders Might Consider a Negative Reprice
9:55AM  :  Quintessential 'Fedspectations' Trade; Bonds Getting Hit; Stocks Won't Help
8:34AM  :  ALERT ISSUED: First Move After NFP is Much Weaker
8:21AM  :  NFP LIKELY DELAYED DUE TO WEATHER

Live Chat Featured Comments
A recap of featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Tim McNerney  :  "when you wrote that earlier MG I flinched like watching something bloody on tv"
John Sheadel  :  "Yeah... wow. Didn't see quite such a move coming. "
Matthew Graham  :  "sheesh, when I mentioned 2.26-2.28 earlier, I came very close to adding "but there's no way we'll go that high today." "
Sergio Szyrko  :  "i woke up early for this?"
John Sheadel  :  "and here comes the Friday slide... shoulda brought my sled"
Matthew Graham  :  "damn, was gonna guess 280k, would have been a winner, but you guys were all so negative. didn't want to get yelled at"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- U.S. FEBRUARY JOBLESS RATE 5.5 PCT (CONSENSUS 5.6 PCT) VS JANUARY 5.7 PCT"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- U.S. FEBRUARY AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS ALL PRIVATE WORKERS +0.1 PCT (CONS +0.2 PCT) VS JANUARY +0.5 PCT (PREV +0.5 PCT), TO $24.78 VS JANUARY $24.75; FEBRUARY YEAR-ON-YEAR EARNINGS +2.0 PCT"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - U.S. FEBRUARY NONFARM PAYROLLS +295,000 (CONSENSUS +240,000) VS JANUARY +239,000 (PREV +257,000), DECEMBER +329,000 (PREV +329,000)"
Matthew Graham  :  ""Due to a late opening for U.S. federal government agencies in Washington on Friday because of snow, the monthly data and U.S. employment and international trade due at 8:30 a.m. (1330 GMT) will likely be delayed. Reuters will publish the data as they become available.""
John Tassios  :  "today , it's all about wage growth, or a lack of it."
Victor Burek  :  "some lower revisions would be helpful"