The last trading day of the month has managed to be a total let-down to anyone looking for excitement.  In terms of doing no further harm, it's been just fine though--at least through mid-day.

That wasn't necessarily looking like the case overnight.  European data and the resulting bond market weakness carried 10yr yields up to 2.052, but they saw solid support there and ultimately made it back to positive territory as the domestic session got underway. 

GDP data was a non-event, either because markets weren't interested or because it was right in line with the forecast (2.2 vs 2.1).  Chicago PMI data was significantly weaker than expected.  While that had a more noticeable effect, bonds nonetheless ran into resistance without gaining too much ground.  The magic number for 10yr yields looks to be 2.00 as far as resistance is concerned, but they've also remained well supported under 2.05.

MBS are outperforming a bit, and have been able to carve out additional gains despite Treasury stagnation.  It's not much of an outperformance, but it leaves Fannie 3.0s at 101-26, just 1 tick off the highs of the day.

Keep in mind that volatility can pick up in the late afternoon on 'month-end' trading days without warning or overt justification.


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.0
101-26 : +0-07
FNMA 3.5
104-24 : +0-06
FNMA 4.0
106-26 : +0-03
Treasuries
2 YR
0.6340 : -0.0200
10 YR
2.0210 : -0.0100
30 YR
2.6325 : +0.0005
Pricing as of 2/27/15 1:05PMEST

Morning Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
10:32AM  :  Quick Heads-Up: Reprice Risk Ebbs as Bonds Keep Fighting
10:15AM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Sadly, There's Already Reprice Risk
9:52AM  :  Bonds Bounce Back After Overnight Weakness; GDP a Non-Event; Chi PMI Helps

Live Chat Featured Comments
A recap of featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- CHICAGO PURCHASING MANAGEMENT INDEX LOWEST SINCE JULY 2009"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- CHICAGO PURCHASING MANAGEMENT INDEX 45.8 IN FEB (CONSENSUS 58.0) VS 59.4 IN JAN"
Matthew Graham  :  "sometimes they show their cards with trades during this 3 minutes"
Matthew Graham  :  "some participants get the data at 9:42"
Gus Floropoulos  :  "how do u know?"
Matthew Graham  :  "Chi-PMI looks like it will miss"
John Tassios  :  "This GDP is old news. Markets already priced in the usual 1.5% - 2.25% avg GDP past 3 + years"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - US Q4 BUSINESS INVENTORY CHANGE ADDS 0.12 PERCENTAGE POINT TO GDP CHANGE"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- US PRELIM Q4 GDP DEFLATOR +0.1 PCT (CONS UNCHANGED), PREV -0.1 PCT"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- US PRELIM Q4 GDP +2.2 PCT (CONSENSUS +2.1 PCT), PREV +2.6 PCT; FINAL SALES +2.1 PCT (CONS +1.6 PCT), PREV +1.8 PCT"