I will have to be careful with how emphatically I convey today's volatility to friends and family.  Anyone who doesn't follow markets as closely would only be seeing essentially unchanged MBS and Treasury levels day-over-day.  They would be well within their right to wonder what the big deal is/was if it resulted in such insignificant changes.

First of all, that changes in trading levels from today's news are much larger than today's screens show, and they've been happening for weeks!  Bond markets love to price-in future news if they have a pretty good idea that something will happen.  In the current case, there was enough belief that some sort of stop-gap would be reached regarding an extension of Greece's bailout agreement to begin pricing in the possibility.  

While we'll likely find that the news isn't nearly as euphoric next week, markets reacted fairly sharply today, with stocks surging massively and bonds getting hit.  From the moments before the leak of the announcement to the moments after it was made official, 10yr yields traversed a range from 2.045 to 2.142.  Fannie 3.0s lost a full half point before leveling off and regaining a modicum of composure into the afternoon.

For the record, with respect to this morning's thoughts, it was indeed up to Greece to fold, and they folded indeed.  This was the less severe of the two negative possibilities, as it leaves plenty of potential drama on the table as Greece is tasked with selling the idea to a populace that expressly voted to not do what Greece just did.  We'll know more about how they'll pitch it on Monday.


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.0
101-06 : -0-01
FNMA 3.5
104-08 : -0-02
FNMA 4.0
106-18 : -0-01
Treasuries
2 YR
0.6420 : +0.0210
10 YR
2.1150 : -0.0070
30 YR
2.7180 : -0.0230
Pricing as of 2/20/15 5:57PMEST

Today's Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
2:53PM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Negative Reprice Guaranteed
2:07PM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Negative Reprice Risk Increasingly Likely as MBS get Caught up with Treasuries
1:41PM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Negative Reprice Risk Debuts as Eurogroup Speaks of Consensus
10:02AM  :  Bonds Add to Overnight Gains as NYSE Opens Lower

MBS Live Chat Highlights
A recap of featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Matthew Graham  :  "DJ- EUROGROUP MOVING 'QUITE CONFIDENTLY' TOWARD CONSENSUS ON EXTENSION -- SENIOR EUROPEAN OFFICIAL"
Matthew Graham  :  "DJ- OFFICIALS CAUTION THAT GREEK STATEMENT MAY STILL CHANGE"
Matthew Graham  :  "DJ- DRAFT EUROGROUP STATEMENT FORESEES TROIKA ASSESSMENT OF GREEK MEASURES BY APRIL -- OFFICIALS"
Matthew Graham  :  "- DJ- DRAFT EUROGROUP STATEMENT FORESEES FOUR-MONTH EXTENSION TO GREEK BAILOUT -- OFFICIALS"
Matthew Graham  :  "Here's a good old primer for the big picture: http://mndne.ws/1ARPBb9"
Matthew Graham  :  "it's already had about as much impact as anything since 2010, albeit indirectly at times. It brought the financial world to its knees on several occasions, and without it, we'd never have seen low 3's as soon as we did. "
Matthew Graham  :  "http://mndne.ws/1z5xKKi Joy, that chart at the bottom is pretty much the answer to your question, in visual format. "
Ted Rood  :  "MG addressed that issue very well in "The Day Ahead" today."
Joy Hurtig  :  " Here is one for the real experts out there....On the big picture scope how much impact do you believe the Greece ordeal will really have on our bond market ?"
Matthew Graham  :  "aaaaand bring it back the other way: GREEK GOVT SPOKESMAN SAYS NOT INFORMED OF ANY EUROGROUP DEAL"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- EURO ZONE MINISTERS, GREECE AGREE ON DRAFT ACCORD THAT COULD EXTEND GREEK BAILOUT -GREEK GOVT OFFICIAL"
Matthew Graham  :  "also, something big apparently just hit"
Matthew Graham  :  "unless you're floating with flagstar "
Ted Rood  :  "No reason to lock when there's 0 chance of a worsen at the moment, and at least a decent chance of improvements this PM."