This recap will largely be a reiteration of content from the Mid-Day article as there have been no material changes in fundamentals since then.  In general, the Mid-Day and Recap articles will be limited on days like today as my resources are primarily devoted to MBS Live members and less to rewording the significant amount of content that we're discussing on MBS Live throughout the day.  Personally, I couldn't imagine the service not being worth $38 a month for anyone who takes their origination career seriously, but feel free to check it out for yourself and let me know. (Learn more here or simply start a risk-free trial)

Bottom line, markets are coming to terms with the realization that Greece is staying in the Eurozone.  Today's move had none of the quintessential "big headline pop" that we'd see on a big NFP or FOMC day.  It was a massive, determined, lumbering brute that moved in measured, relentless steps.  There were no huge vertical movements where 10-second blocks of trading include a significant amount of the day's range and several hours worth of volume.  It was an all day affair.

It's not all about Greece either, but also about the fertile environment for the sell-off.  That might sound a little weird considering we've been talking about value buyers stepping in to stop the bleeding in bonds after 10yr yields hit 2%, but therein lies the problem.  That was a very popular way to approach recent weakness, and indeed many traders got long (bought bonds) when 10yr yields hit these seemingly important technical levels.  Unfortunately, when that happens, the side effect is vulnerability.  An overabundance of "longs" (bets that rates are ready to move lower) is susceptible to being "stopped out" (forced to sell if rates move higher quickly enough).  That's part of the drama today, and often a key ingredient in snowball selling.

All that having been said, things could still go either way, but it makes better sense to err on the side of caution until something conclusive happens in Europe.   We could still bounce back from recent weakness, but we can't rule out the possibility that it continues.

MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
FNMA 3.0
100-31 : -0-20
FNMA 3.5
104-03 : -0-16
FNMA 4.0
106-15 : -0-09
2 YR
0.6660 : +0.0209
10 YR
2.1450 : +0.0981
30 YR
2.7330 : +0.0859
Pricing as of 2/17/15 5:41PMEST

Today's Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
2:48PM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Another Incremental Increase in Negative Reprice Risk
12:37PM  :  ALERT ISSUED: If you Haven't Seen a Reprice Yet, You Probably Will
10:43AM  :  ALERT ISSUED: In Dangerous Territory; More Negative Reprice Risk for Some
9:26AM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Bond Markets Unable to Hold on to Tepid Overnight Gains; Things Getting More Serious

MBS Live Chat Highlights
A recap of featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Brian Weatherill  :  "BTW.. you beat my loan officers sources by a bit, I locked on friday AM and he's impressed.. I suspect he'll be a new user sooner than later"
Bill Hills  :  "nice work MG"
robert clark  :  "MG on tv again"
Matthew Graham  :  "For those wondering what's up with today, the MID-DAY bullet points should fill in some holes. "
Jeff Anderson  :  "Knife or hand grenade, VB?"
Victor Burek  :  "knife is falling, nobody wants to catch it"
Josh Stika  :  "seems like justification for a 2nd round of reprices here"
Dave Pressel  :  "this is painful"
Scott Valins  :  "geeze when do buyers come in?"
Jeff Anderson  :  "Anyone else's sweet tooth not satisfied yet?"
Nathan Miller  :  "all of january was a sweet break"
Dena Zeman  :  "we can't catch a break can we?..."
Matthew Graham  :  "I think 2.15"
John Tassios  :  "MG, what's next support level? 2.14 - 2.17 area?"